Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 282021
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDLAND FIRE TRAINING CAMP 20150528...DCNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
421 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1303 EDT ON MAY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR IS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING BUT WILL SHORTLY BE REPLACED BY
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR ON FRIDAY. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY
START...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1500 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............34  30  27  27  28  28  29  29  30  31  35  38
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................78  77  75  73  71  69  67  65  62  61  60  59
RH..................40  45  50  54  57  60  64  69  74  76  79  82
20 FT WIND DIR......N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......7   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.2 5.2 4.1 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  10  10  12  12  12  12  10  8   5   3
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1500...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1600...THEN
                    16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100-5900 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............41  32  24  27  32  38  44  49  51  54  60  62
WEATHER COV.........                                SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                                RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                SCH CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................60  61  60  64  68  72  73  75  76  75  75  74
RH..................77  72  73  69  66  63  61  59  57  57  57  57
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   9   9   10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....10              10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.1 5.7 5.9 5.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  NE  E   E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   7   8   8   7   7   8   9   10  12  12  13
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   4   4
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1900...THEN 9-15 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 0100...THEN
                    NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO 9 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............62  62  62  62  60  59  59  59  59  61  66  68
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................74  74  75  73  71  70  69  68  67  66  66  65
RH..................60  63  66  69  72  76  78  81  84  85  86  87
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......10  10  9   10  10  9   9   8   6   6   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.4 2.9 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  13  14  16  18  20  17  14  10  9   10  10
LAL.................4   3   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0900...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1100...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1300...THEN
                    16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000-4700 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............70  74  76  74  71  70  70  71  72  71  71  71
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
TEMP................65  65  65  68  70  73  74  75  76  77  78  78
RH..................86  86  86  82  78  74  71  67  64  63  62  61
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......5   6   7   8   9   12  12  13  13  13  13  13
20 FT WIND GUST.....        10  10  15  15  15  15  15  20  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.9 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  10  10  12  13  14  15  16  16  17  17
LAL.................1   1   1   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP
REQUESTED BY...MATT REED
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150528.WILDL.01/CTP


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