Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 252329
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Baca Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
529 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 2000 MDT on May 25.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Red Flag Warning remains in effect tonight until 9 PM MDT.
Overnight tonight winds will slightly decrease across the burn area.
Late in the morning tomorrow winds will once again become strong.
Relative humidities will remain in the single digits with poor
recoveries tomorrow. As a result, critical fire weather conditions
will continue and a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from noon
until 9 PM MDT Friday. Winds will decrease over the weekend and
shift around to the south to southeast. Sunday into next week shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 22 to 28 mph with gusts to
                    around 55 mph becoming southwest 8 to 13 mph
                    with gusts to around 35 mph in the late evening
                    and overnight.
Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....West 32 to 33 mph becoming southwest 7 to 8 mph
                    early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (364400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (0 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 PM         MIDNGT       4 AM
Sky (%).........9            6            6
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............63           52           46
RH..............11           20           27
20 FT wind......W 20G40      W 10G20      SW 7G15
Mix hgt (ft)....11800        BLW100       BLW100
Transport wind..W 20         SW 9         SW 7
Haines index....5            4            3
Vent Rate.......EXNT         POOR         POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 35
                    mph.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL increasing to 11600 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 11 to 12 mph increasing to west 34 to 35
                    mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (157300 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (333000 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........3            3            6
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............45           59           68
RH..............28           15           9
20 FT wind......SW 8G15      SW 10G20     SW 14G30
Mix hgt (ft)....5600         5600         11600
Transport wind..S 8          SW 35        W 33
Haines index....4            4            6
Vent Rate.......EXNT         EXNT         EXNT

$$
Forecaster...PAZOS
Requested by...Francesca Chavez
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1709658.7/EPZ
.EMAIL fechavez@fs.fed.us



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