Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FNUS73 KGRR 211230
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WINSTON RD UNIT 15...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
830 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED.  THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON REFLECTS AN INFLUENCE OF A LAKE BREEZE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.
RH..................47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 5 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5300 FT AGL THROUGH EARLY
                    AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 9900-10400 FT AGL
                    DECREASING TO 7300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 4300 FT
                    AGL IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-1200 (POOR TO EXCELLENT).

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........46     30     20     17     14
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............66     71     75     74     73
RH..............47     35     28     32     34
20 FT WIND......N 6    NE 6   N 7    N 7    NW 7
20 FT GUST......15     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 8 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-1700 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-300 (POOR TO GOOD).

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 76.
RH..................MIN 34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 3 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 20
                    MPH...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-7900 FT
                    AGL...THEN DECREASING TO 4700-5200 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE DAY.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-1500 (POOR TO EXCELLENT).

$$
FORECASTER...MJS
REQUESTED BY...KORY BORGMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160521.WINST.01/GRR



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