Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 271135
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for chalk banks access...north carolina state parks
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
735 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on March 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure offshore will allow for southerly winds to
bring above normal temperatures this week. A low
pressure system inland will bring chances of rain Monday
and Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front that will
move through the area midweek. Another system will move through
later in the week, bringing the potential for showers
and thunderstorms on Friday followed by dry high pressure for the
weekend.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...Low to Moderate.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. A slight chance of showers
                    early in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
                    late.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south
                    around 6 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late.
Max Mixing Hgt......6400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 10 mph...increasing to 8 to 13
                    mph late in the morning.
Max Vent Rate.......69690 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............40.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........54  53  53  52  53  54  55  57  60  62
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            ISO
Temp............59  62  68  72  75  77  78  78  79  78
RH..............86  78  65  58  52  49  48  46  46  48
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20  10  10
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   4   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.    5   10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.0 4.7 5.3 6.0 6.4 6.2
Trans Wnd Dir...S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans Wnd Spd...2   6   10  13  13  10  9   8   9   10
Haines Index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..1   10  31  58  69  70  68  62  61  66
Stability.......C   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........5   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............2   11  25  38  40  37  32  30  30  34
Aparnt Tmp (F)..59  62  68  72  75  77  78  78  79  78
Sfc pres (in)...004 004 004 004 004 004 995 995 995 995

$$
Forecaster...Bacon
Requested by...bowen
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705262.0/ILM
.EMAIL alfred.bowen@ncparks.gov



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