Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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908
FNUS72 KILM 221612
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for William Murphy...North Carolina Forest Serviceh
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
1112 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EST on January 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Mild January weather will prevail through Tuesday, ahead of an
approaching cold front. Light coastal showers later today, will
be followed by more widespread shower coverage Tuesday, with a
slight chance of a thunderstorm. Cooler air will move in during
the mid-week period, as high pressure builds from the west. A
cold front will approach next weekend, bringing a warming trend,
and a chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable

Fog potential for tonight...Low.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Max Mixing Hgt......3200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 0 to 9 mph, becoming south 12 to 16
                    mph in the afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......50024 mph-ft.
Max ADI.............53.

TIME (EST)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........57     64     71
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............60     66     67
RH..............54     51     58
CHC Pcpn (%)....10     10     10
20 ft wind......SW 3   SW 4   S 3
20 ft wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   3100   3100
Transport wind..SW 9   SW 14  S 15
VR MPH-FT*1000..20     43     46
Stability.......C      D      C
ADI.............24     34     49

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late in the evening. A chance of
                    showers late. Isolated thunderstorms late.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south 5 to 6
                    mph after midnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 9 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......575 mph-ft.
Min ADI.............1.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........78  82  82  82  83  83  84  84  85  87  88  90
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        ISO ISO
Temp............62  59  58  57  57  58  58  59  59  60  60  61
RH..............74  84  88  91  92  91  91  90  90  91  90  88
CHC Pcpn (%)....10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  30  40  40
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.                                6       7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   2   2   2   3   5   5   6   6   7   8   9
VR MPH-FT*1000..8   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2
Stability.......F   F   F   F   F   E   E   E   E   E   D   D
ADI.............3   1   1   1   2   3   3   4   4   5   7   8

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent), then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). A chance of
                    showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the morning, then a slight chance of showers
                    early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    morning.
Max Mixing Hgt......5200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 16 mph, increasing to southwest 20
                    to 29 mph late in the morning, then increasing
                    to 33 to 38 mph in the afternoon, becoming west
                    around 25 mph late.
Max Vent Rate.......172270 mph-ft.
Max ADI.............111.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........91     87     75     62     49     36
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............61     62     66     68     70     69
RH..............86     90     84     77     62     51
CHC Pcpn (%)....40     40     40     30     20     10
20 ft wind......S 7    S 11   SW 12  SW 12  SW 13  SW 12
20 ft wind gust.10     13     14     14     16     14
Mix hgt (ft)....300    600    1400   2700   3900   5200
Transport wind..S 10   S 16   SW 24  SW 33  SW 38  W 33
VR MPH-FT*1000..3      10     33     89     149    172
Stability.......D      D      D      D      D      D
ADI.............11     18     37     75     104    104

$$
Forecaster...Bacon
Requested by...Hagen Blake
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800682.0/ILM
.EMAIL Hagen.blake@ncagr.gov



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