Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 281441
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR CAISON...TNC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
941 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON FEBRUARY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

BROTAK PROFILE TODAY.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 6
                    TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-2500 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (5520-39790 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............32     66     65     65
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................40     45     46     43
RH..................55     41     41     49
20 FT WIND..........NE 8   NE 8   NE 7   NE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........1900   2500   2500   1500
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 13  NE 16  NE 16  NE 15
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...24     40     40     22

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3334 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............66     68     69     74     77     80
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................41     39     37     36     36     35
RH..................56     61     67     72     75     79
20 FT WIND..........NE 7   NE 7   NE 6   NE 6   NE 6   NE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........1000   900    800    600    500    400
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 13  NE 10  NE 10  NE 10  NE 10  NE 9
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...12     9      8      7      6      4

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL LATE
                    AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2070 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............82     83     82     81     80     79
WEATHER COV.........                            CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................34     34     39     45     49     51
RH..................82     91     88     79     72     68
20 FT WIND..........NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   E 4    E 3    SE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........300    400    600    800    900    900
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 8   NE 8   NE 7   E 6    E 5    SE 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...2      3      4      4      4      3

$$
FORECASTER...III
REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150228.CAISO.01/ILM







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