Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FNUS73 KMKX 191404
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for HRRBP1704-Shop...USFWS
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
904 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on June 19.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop
from late this morning through the afternoon. Then another round
of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected for Tuesday.
A nice day will follow on Wednesday but more showers and thunderstorms
are forecast for Wednesday night through Thursday night.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70
                    percent.
Temperature.........66 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................70 percent at ignition...Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming west 5 to 10 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......1500-3200 ft AGL increasing to 4100 ft AGL at
                    ignition...otherwise 4100-4900 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 21 mph shifting to the northwest 23
                    to 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /52800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /64300 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (73600 knot-ft) early in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low at ignition...max 3.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  79  81  80  78  76  76  73
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............66  67  67  68  68  69  69  69
RH..............70  68  68  63  63  59  59  57
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   8   9   10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.7
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.17  17  18  18  21  23  25  25
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100053  57  60  64  74  83  93  89

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    evening, then slight chance of rain showers
                    early in the evening. Chance of precipitation
                    30 percent.
Temperature.........Min 53.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......2900-4400 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1800 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 25 mph shifting to the west 9
                    to 15 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (50400-83700 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor to fair (2100-26700 knot-ft)
                    in the late evening and overnight.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........67  59  52  45  38  33  31  30  30  32  37  48
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Temp............68  67  65  63  61  60  58  57  55  54  53  53
RH..............57  59  63  70  75  78  80  80  83  86  89  89
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 4.1 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.25  25  23  20  17  15  14  12  10  10  9   12
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100084  79  50  27  8   6   4   3   2   2   2   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers until late
                    afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the late morning and early afternoon. Chance of
                    precipitation 50 percent.
Temperature.........Max 71.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the late morning and early
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-1700 ft AGL increasing to 4700-5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 21 mph increasing to 21 to 26 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (5500-43500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (69900 knot-ft) in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to or low.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........62  73  78  80  77  70  62  54  52  52  51  46
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............54  57  59  61  63  65  66  67  68  69  70  70
RH..............90  83  78  75  70  65  63  61  57  55  51  51
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..4   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.5       10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 1.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.9 5.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.13  14  17  21  25  25  26  26  25  23  22  21
Haines index....4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10006   8   23  44  70  81  92  104 102 99  95  85

$$
Forecaster...Marquardt
Requested by...Sean Sallmann
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1711267.0/MKX
.EMAIL sean_sallmann@fws.gov



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