Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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772
FNUS74 KMOB 281241
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for CHICK CPT 397...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
741 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Increased southerly mixed layer flow will continue
across the region through Saturday. Breezy southerly surface winds
can be expected with generally good to good daytime dispersion
expected. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm can be expected both today and Saturday.

Fog Potential And Other Remarks...Patchy fog development with
visibilities down to around 1 mile is possible late tonight and
early Saturday morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. Chance of showers early in the
                    morning. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 3100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...Increasing to 945 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 26 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 7 to 11 meters/second increasing to 11 to
                    12 meters/second early in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....31 increasing to 64.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........84  80  76  72  68  66  67  68  69  70
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............70  72  75  77  79  82  83  84  85  84
RH..............100 97  87  85  79  72  70  67  65  67
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  11  12  13  14  15  14  14  13  13
20 FT wind gust.15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  20  22  23  25  25  26  26  26  25
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).7   9   10  10  11  11  12  12  12  11
Dispersion idx..26  35  45  51  57  61  63  64  64  62
LVORI...........4   4   4   4   3   3   3   1   1   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......1200-3100 ft AGL decreasing to 1100 ft AGL
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height (m)...366-945 meters AGL decreasing to 335 meters AGL
                    early in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 23 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 7 to 10 meters/second.
Dispersion index....58 decreasing to 16.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........71  71  70  69  68  67  66  65  65  66  66  66
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............82  81  79  77  76  76  76  75  75  74  74  72
RH..............72  72  77  82  85  85  85  87  87  90  90  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  12  12  10  10  10  10  9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.23  22  21  21  20  20  18  18  17  17  17  16
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).10  10  9   9   9   9   8   8   8   8   8   7
Dispersion idx..58  29  24  23  22  21  20  18  16  15  14  14
LVORI...........2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0700, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1300, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 16 mph. Gusts to 20 to 25 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1100-2500 ft AGL increasing to 3200-5100 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height (m)...335-762 meters AGL increasing to 975-1554
                    meters AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 24 mph increasing to 25 to 29 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 7 to 11 meters/second increasing to 11 to
                    13 meters/second in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....18 increasing to 86.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  66  63  60  57  54  51  50  51  54  56  59
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............72  73  75  78  81  84  85  87  88  88  88  87
RH..............93  87  82  74  67  61  57  53  50  50  52  53
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   9   10  11  13  14  15  16  16  16  15  14
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  15  16  18  22  24  26  29  29  29  28  25
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).7   7   7   8   10  11  12  13  13  13  13  11
Dispersion idx..14  22  29  37  46  59  72  84  86  85  83  78
LVORI...........5   4   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...21
Requested by...Rodney Landrum
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707934.0/MOB
.EMAIL rjlandrum@fs.fed.us



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