Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FNUS72 KRAH 151410
FWSRAH

Spot Forecast for LVF 10...Carvers Creek State Park
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
910 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact this NWS office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Southwesterly flow will persist through Friday, resulting in a
warming trend. A cold front will cross the region late Friday, with
a much cooler air mass to follow for the weekend.

Surface based inversion will lift above 1000 FT AGL between 11 AM and 12 PM.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent), then becoming
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered showers
                    late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 9 to 12 mph with gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2400-2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 22 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................15, increasing to 41.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.
Visibility..........7.

TIME (EST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........82     80     61     47     41
Weather cov.....SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     10     0      0      0
Temp............62     68     73     76     75
RH..............84     73     62     58     60
20 ft wind......SW 9   SW 10  SW 11  SW 12  SW 11
20 ft wind gust.16     18     23     23     23
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1100   1800   2500   2200
Transport wind..SW 15  SW 18  SW 22  SW 22  SW 22
LVORI...........5      3      1      1      1
ADI.............15     31     45     45     36
Visibility (sm).7      7      7      7      7

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 10 to 12 mph with gusts up to
                    30 mph.
Mixing height.......200-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 18 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................36, decreasing to 15.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Visibility..........7.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........39     45     65     56     56     64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
Temp............73     70     68     67     66     65
RH..............64     73     81     84     84     87
20 ft wind......SW 10  SW 10  SW 11  SW 12  SW 12  SW 12
20 ft wind gust.24     25     30     30     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   200    500    600    700    800
Transport wind..SW 16  SW 14  SW 17  SW 18  SW 18  SW 18
LVORI...........1      3      4      4      4      5
ADI.............36     13     16     16     16     16
Visibility (sm).7      7      7      7      7      7

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A chance of
                    showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
                    30 mph in the morning, becoming west-northwest by
                    mid afternoon Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......700-1200 ft AGL early, increasing to 2800-3200 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 25 mph, becoming northwest 18
                    to 20 mph late.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................16, increasing to 32 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 64 in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, decreasing to 40 late.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.
Visibility..........6, decreasing to 0.0 late.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........71     72     72     76     80     89
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     40     40
Temp............64     66     70     74     76     74
RH..............90     87     73     64     58     57
20 ft wind......SW 11  SW 11  SW 13  SW 15  W 13   W 9
20 ft wind gust.25     30     30     30     30     20
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1200   2000   2400   2800   3000
Transport wind..SW 17  SW 21  W 28   W 30   W 25   NW 18
LVORI...........5      4      1      1      1      1
ADI.............16     32     67     67     61     40
Visibility (sm).7      7      7      6      6      6

$$
Forecaster...SHARP
Requested by...Colleen Bowers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1801995.0/RAH
.EMAIL colleen.bowers@ncparks.gov


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