Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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656
FNUS71 KRNK 241340
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for 221 - VC...NC State Parks
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
940 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Look for increasing sunshine later this morning into the afternoon
but more clouds arriving later in the day. Dewpoints running a
little lower, so min RH should be more in the 40 to 45 percent
range, though the southerly flow will start to bring dewpoints
back up this afternoon. 20 foot winds will stay out of the south
at 5 to 10 mph, with occasional upslope gust of 15 mph.
Mixing heights should max out between 2pm and 6pm
in the 2000-3000 foot AGL range, then drop back to the surface
after 8pm.

Continued increasing humidity into Saturday with warmer
temperatures. Next threat of rain will be Sunday morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-65 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 9 to 14 mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................11...increasing to 25 late in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57  59  60  61  61  57  56  54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............47  49  51  53  55  57  58  60
RH..............51  48  45  45  49  50  50  50
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   6   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5
Mixng wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixng wind spd..9   13  14  14  14  13  13  13
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............11  22  28  25  27  27  27  28
Haines index....3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly to Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 8 to 17 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................30...decreasing to 8.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........51     41     45     49     57     63
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............58     54     53     51     49     48
RH..............57     65     69     73     79     85
20 ft wind......S 6    S 4    S 3    SW 3   S 3    S 3
20 ft wind gust.10     5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   1100   700    400    400    100
Mixing wind......SW 14  SW 17  SW 16  SW 16  SW 17  SW 12
LVORI...........2      2      3      3      3      4
ADI.............30     11     7      7      7      5
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent...increasing to 20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 6 to
                    7 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL...increasing to 3300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southwest 6 to 14 mph...becoming south 17 to 20
                    mph late in the morning.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6...increasing to 45.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........66     72     75     74     71     78
Weather cov.....                                   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      10     10     10     20
Temp............46     45     51     55     59     61
RH..............91     100    84     73     64     58
20 ft wind......S 3    S 3    S 4    S 6    S 6    S 7
20 ft wind gust.5      5      10     10     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    1400   2300   2700   3100
Mixing wind......SW 7   SW 7   SW 14  SW 18  SW 20  S 18
LVORI...........6      7      3      3      1      1
ADI.............3      5      22     39     44     45
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      3

$$
Forecaster...Perry
Requested by...Joseph Shimel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705139.0/RNK



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