Text Products for FWS Issued by TOP

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FNUS73 KTOP 222304
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for DGCO Wildfire...LOCAL/COUNTY OFFICIAL
National Weather Service Topeka KS
604 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 CDT on April 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Main concern will be winds subsiding early this evening, but still
remaining from the south-southwest through the night. A frontal
boundary will move through the burn site shifting the winds to
the west in the 9 to 10 am time period on Tuesday. Winds be become
northerly by afternoon 10 to 15 mph.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers overnight. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........67 at forecast start...Min 51.
RH..................39 percent at forecast start...Max 82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 17 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise South winds 12 to 18 mph with
                    gusts to around 27 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise 500 ft
                    AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /16800 knot-ft/ at forecast start.
                    Min...poor /8300 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at forecast start...max
                    4.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                    SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  20  20  20
Temp............67  66  61  60  59  58  58  57  56  54  53
RH..............39  43  51  51  53  57  59  62  64  71  74
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..17  15  15  15  17  17  17  18  18  17  12
20 FT wind gust.23  25  23  25  26  26  27  27  25  23  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Haines index....2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100017  8   9   10  10  10  11  12  10  10  8

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning. Slight chance of rain
                    showers in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 7 to 11 mph with gusts to around 21
                    mph shifting to the north 10 to 11 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (89500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     20     0      0
Temp............53     53     61     66     71     72
RH..............74     79     66     57     42     33
20 FT wind dir..S      S      W      N      NE     N
20 FT wind spd..11     10     9      10     10     11
20 FT wind gust.16     21     15     14     18     18
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1100   2000   3300   4700   6000
Haines index....3      3      2      3      3      4
SDspl kt-ft/10006      15     22     42     75     90

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (30200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY     MCLEAR    PCLDY     MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............72        60        52        48
RH..............30        43        54        63
20 FT wind dir..N         N         N         N
20 FT wind spd..10        7         8         6
20 FT wind gust.15        12        13        11
Mix hgt (ft)....2400      500       400       400
Haines index....5         4         3         4
SDspl kt-ft/100030        6         5         5

$$
Forecaster...Woynick
Requested by...Jillian Rodrigue
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2411846.0/TOP
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jrodrigue@douglascountyks.org
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
