Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FNUS74 KTSA 212306
FWSTSA

Spot Forecast for RazorbacksAuburn...NWS
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
606 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Forecast is based on incident time of 1900 CDT on October 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)838-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will increase and spread across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening.  While a few storms could develop
ahead of the cold front, especially in the terrain of southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, the main round of severe is expected
with storms developing a near a cold front moving in from the northwest.
Initial individual storm cell development to the west will transition to
a line of storms this evening that will sweep through the entire area.
While some potential for hail exits, especially earlier in the evening,
the main risk will be damaging wind and the potential for areas of rotation
to form within the line.  Because of this rotation potential, there is
some tornado threat anywhere along the line.  Scattered areas of strong
winds are also expected within the line.  Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are
expected in the most intense storms.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(30-50 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (100 percent). A chance of shower or thunderstorm
                    this evening. Showers and thunderstorms after midnight.

Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...Midnight through 7am.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Dewpoint............67 decreasing to 61 after midnight.
Apparent temp.......68.
Surface winds.......South winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 7 to 8 mph late in the night.
Wind shift..........1am.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 INCHES.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........32  35  45  53  57  73  93  100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Chc of pcpn (%).90  90  90  90  90  90  100 100 100 100 100
Temp............72  71  70  70  70  69  67  65  62  60  60
Dewpoint........67  67  68  67  67  67  66  63  61  60  59
RH..............84  87  93  90  90  93  97  93  97  100 96
Aparnt tmp (F)..68  65  63  61  60  59  58  58  57  56  55
Surface wnd dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  NW  NW  E
Surface wnd spd.8   9   11  9   11  11  12  10  8   6   6
Surface wnd gst.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15

$$
Forecaster...PILTZ
Requested by...Ed Calianese
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 1717669.0/TSA
.EMAIL ed.calianese@noaa.gov


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