Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 301848
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO NEAR 25N90W TO 22N98W. SCATTEROMETER AND
SURFACE DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS
AND BUOYS OBSERVATIONS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ON SUN.
THEN...A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MODEST SEAS. WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF MATTHEW`S LARGE CIRCULATION. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN MATTHEW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE OF THE WINDS TO 15 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF...WITH PROBABLY
HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON HURRICANE WARNING MATTHEW. REPORTS
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE WARNING HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
WARNING...AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 100 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 120 KT. IN ADDITION... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN
TO 968 MB. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER THE SYSTEM INDICATES
THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 210 NM N OF CENTER AND
90 NM S OF CENTER. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 64W AND 70W... INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. AN ALTIMETER
PASS JUST E OF MATTHEW SHOWS THE 12 FT SEAS EXTENDING WITHIN ABOUT
300 NM NW QUADRANT...240 NM TO NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 120 NM
TO SE QUADRANTS. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 KT...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS HURRICANE
WARNING IS FORECAST TO CROSS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON MON
APPROACHING EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY MON EVENING.
SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA, THE ABC ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND
COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE

THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER MATTHEW ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO ABOUT
21N. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND HURRICANE WARNING MATTHEW.
AS THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE E FROM N FLORIDA FRI...THEN STALL JUST OFFSHORE
AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL PREVAIL N OF 22N
THROUGH SAT. AS MATTHEW APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA ON MON...THE RIDGE
WILL RETREAT EASTWARD...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE S WATERS AND THE BAHAMAS.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT.
     HURRICANE WARNING SUN.
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.
     HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING
VENEZUELA BASIN...
     HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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