Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 220747
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
347 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The weak pressure pattern responsible for light winds and limited
wave heights that has been in place over the past few days across
the Gulf is in transition, ahead of a resurgent remnant low of
Harvey now moving through the Yucatan peninsula on its way to the
Bay of Campeche. Conditions are favorable for further
development of the low pressure, and there is a high chance it
will re- develop a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days
as it enters the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Global models are also
converging on a consensus track taking the possible tropical
cyclone across the western Gulf and making landfall on either the
northern coast of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas or in southern
Texas later in the week. Please see hurricanes.gov for
information on the development of the remnants of Harvey.

In addition, weak low pressure over the northern Bahamas is
expected to move across the Florida peninsula through mid week,
then stall over the southeast Gulf Thu, before moving northeast
and across Florida again toward the Atlantic as high pressure
builds over the central Gulf in the wake of the possible tropical
cyclone moving through the western Gulf. This low pressure will
have minimal impact on winds and seas, but could serve as a focus
for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active over the
northwest Caribbean, north of 18N, related to convergent low
level flow into what could be a re-developing remnant low of
Harvey, now moving toward the Belize coast and expected to
continue to move westward into the southwest Gulf. A tropical
wave south of the Mona Passage will move across the central
Caribbean through mid week, and the western Caribbean later in
the week. Strong trade winds will pulse off the coasts of
northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela in the wake of the
tropical wave. Elsewhere, a trough will move north of the region
from the Leeward Islands to the Windward Passage Wed and Thu.
This will keep high pressure relatively weak north of the area
resulting in modest trade wind flow elsewhere through the next
several days.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A trough reaching from the northern Bahamas to central Cuba will
move westward across the Florida peninsula through mid week,
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms over mainly
the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. High pressure is building
northeast of the Bahamas in the wake of the trough. This will
support a pulse of strong coastal winds off northern Hispaniola
later today. Another trough well to the east of the area in the
central Atlantic will pass 65W in the Atlantic waters south of
22N by mid week, reaching the Windward Passage by Thu. This
feature may become absorbed by a another trough expected to
develop off the east central Florida coast later in the week,
related to the trough currently in the Bahamas. Looking ahead,
some model guidance indicates this may form into low pressure
off northeast Florida by Sat, but some uncertainty remains.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.



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