Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 251840
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Scatterometer data this morning placed a cold front from the
Florida Panhandle to just north of Tampico, Mexico, with a
pronounced north wind shift well ahead of the front associated
with a pre-frontal trough that extended from SW Florida to near
Vera Cruz Mexico. The eastern portion of the front will continue
to move eastward through tonight, extending from south Florida to
near 25N90W by Sunday, while the western portion stalls out as
it becomes oriented east to west along about 25N. Northerly winds
of 20 to 25 kt this morning north of the front are now tapering
off to 15 to 20 kt. High pressure over the interior central U.S.
will shift eastward across the southeast U.S. through tonight,
and off the eastern U.S. coast late Sunday night. The eastward
shift of the high will result in the eastern portion of the front
also stalling out by late Sunday, with the entire front then
weakening as it lifts northward Sunday night into Monday.
Moderate to fresh return flow will then dominate the basin
through Wednesday. By Wednesday night, a cold front will cross
the northwestern Gulf, reaching from central Florida to the Bay
of Campeche by Thursday. Strong northerly winds will follow this
front, with the potential for a Gale to develop over the
southwest Gulf on Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A weak pressure pattern will continue to support light to
moderate winds over the majority of the Caribbean through
tonight, except for locally strong winds induced by terrain along
the coast of Colombia tonight. High pressure building north of
the region will bring increasing trades developing across the
Caribbean Sunday into Sunday night. By Monday morning, fresh to
locally strong trades will cover the central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, including the tropical
Atlantic waters. By Monday night, the stronger trades will be
enhanced by the nocturnal influences north of Colombia to support
Gale winds each night Monday night through Wednesday night.
Currently wave guidance peaks wave heights between 12 to 13 ft
under the strongest winds, with a broader area of 8 to 10 ft seas
persisting across the south central Caribbean Monday through
Thursday, between about 72W and 80W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft, supported
by fresh trade wind flow, will build across the tropical
Atlantic zones early next week as well.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A cold front extending southward from low pressure departing the
region over the northwestern Atlantic will dissipate through this
evening as the front loses the upper level support. After a brief
break from active weather over the SW N Atlantic, a cold front
will begin to cross the northwestern waters tonight, with briefly
strong northerly winds and seas to 8 ft affecting waters mainly
north of 30N, west of the front, through late Sunday morning. The
front will cross the zones eastward to southeastward through
Sunday night, before exiting our zones to the east on Monday.
High pressure will then build across the region and will dominate
the SW N Atlantic with generally benign marine conditions through
Wednesday. The only exception may be strong winds that models are
forecasting to pulse north of Haiti and the Windward Passage
Monday through Tuesday night. Late in the forecast period,
forecast models are indicating another cold front approaching the
northwestern waters.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.



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