Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
445
AGXX40 KNHC 090802
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
302 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH SAT THEN MEDIUM.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. IT
CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED FORM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO...AND WILL SHIFT SE OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A RELATIVE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS STILL IN PLACE
BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND DEEP LOW PRES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF AS
OBSERVED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03 UTC. THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT TURBULENT
MIXING OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS WILL
RESULT IN FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF. RECENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER
THE NE GULF INDICATED SEAS ARE LIKELY PEAKING AROUND 17
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF...LEAVING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
BASIN THU INTO FRI.

LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT...STALLING FROM THE S CENTRAL GULF TO THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON...AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPROACHING THE NW GULF. WHILE THERE
IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AMONG GLOBAL MODELS...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO LONGER TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA
TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW GULF AND FAR SW GULF WEST OF
THE FRONT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSISTING OFF COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWING A SECOND
FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 11 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE THE
COASTAL REEFS OF NICARAGUA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR GALE FORCE. SIMILARLY HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE AS WELL OVER THE
S CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF TRADES REACHING GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT.
THE LATEST RUNS OF OPERATIONAL GFS AND UKMET HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS...WITH THE ECMWF NEAR GALE. GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING ANY PROBABILITY OF GALE...BUT GIVEN THE
PATTERN GALES ARE PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BE RETAINED IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL REACH 12 TO 13 FT OFF COLOMBIA BY THU
AS WELL. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA AS WELL BY THU NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS DIMINISH FRI ONLY SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
BASIN...INCREASING AGAIN SAT AS ANOTHER REINFORCING AIRMASS BUILDS
TO THE NORTH.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NW SWELL WILL MIGRATE PASS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND MIX WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTER PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE
WIND SWELL BY TONIGHT WITH 8 TO 9 FT COMBINED SEAS. THE NW SWELL
WILL DECAY THROUGH FRI WITH THE TRADE WIND SWELL TO 8 FT
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

GALE WARNINGS ARE AGAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA EAST OF NE FLORIDA
AND N OF THE BAHAMAS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING. A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ALREADY
CONFIRMED WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE ONGOING IN THIS AREA. THE
SUSTAINED GALES WILL DIMINISH N OF 27N W OF 77W THIS MORNING...BUT
STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF
FREQUENT GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TODAY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. SUSTAINED GALES WILL ALSO EXTEND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA N OF 29N THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER TO EXTEND THESE SUSTAINED GALES INTO
TONIGHT. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE MOSTLY KEEPS THE BEST AREA FOR
OVERNIGHT GALES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN. CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS WINDS TO JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY WED IN WATERS N OF 29N WITH SEAS 12 TO 20
FT N OF 27N...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 13 FT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS EAST AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REACHING FROM 30N50W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ALLOW WIND OFF NE
FLORIDA TO INCREASE BY LATE FRI...WITH NE SURGES INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AS WELL. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH FROM
31N76W TO THE SPACE COAST OF FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN FROM
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SAT EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE MODEST POTENTIAL FOR GALE WARNING FORCE WINDS JUST
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT N OF 29N/30N. STRONG HIGH PRES
THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UNITED STATES MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING WED NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.