Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 301803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

A TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA...IS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO A 1013 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 25N82W TO 23N84W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
CENTER AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS S OF 26N E OF 84W. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
REGIONAL WATERS ESPECIALLY NEAR TSTMS AND SQUALLY WEATHER. THESE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE THE
LOW PRES WILL REACH A POSITION NEAR 27N85W BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THERE NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER
THE NE GULF THROUGH LATE TUE BEFORE DRIFTING NE AND INLAND WED.

OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF REGION PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE N GULF WED TO PRODUCE
MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS S HALF OF BASIN AND ALLOW FOR YUCATAN
THERMAL TROUGH TO SET UP EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

AN INVERTED TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SOMEWHAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ERIKA. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND JUST W OF TROUGH N OF 21N. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11 FT BASED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS.
BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR 15N75W CONTINUES TO REPORT SEAS TO 10 FT.
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED 20-25 KT TRADES
EXTENDING FROM S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 11-12N WITH 30 KT WINDS OF
NE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND INSIDE GULF OF VENEZUELA. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED
AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W/67W WILL CONTINUE W AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W/52W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON MON REACHING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIEWS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIEWS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA
LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND A 1022 MB HIGH PRES
SITUATED NEAR 32N68W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
SE-S WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS. SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF
THESE WINDS. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD JUST OFF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY N OF
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SE BAHAMAS.
THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THU...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA.
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WILL BRUSH THE FAR
SRN WATERS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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