Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 220644
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A STALLING COLD
FRONT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LATEST ASCAT PASS
DEPICTED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS AND 2-3 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...EXCEPT REACHING NEAR
4 FT IN THE REGION OF STRONG WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN COAST. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HELPING TO
DEVELOP FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST EACH NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 12 FT BY THE MORNING HOURS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY THEN CONFIDENCE STARTS TO DECREASE THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ROUGHLY ALONG 27N AS A COLD FRONT
HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT
RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE
WILL RETREAT EASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS...MOVING E OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRESHENING WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE E OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO HELP DEVELOP A HIGH AMPLITUDE INVERTED TROUGH E OF
THE AREA. A WAVE BREAKING EVENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER
INERTIA OF THE WEST-EAST MOVEMENT OF THE STEERING WIND
DISSIPATES...UPPER LEVEL LOWS DRIFT BACK WESTWARD. WITH THIS
TENDENCY...THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WAS EAST OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHICH DECREASES CONFIDENCE. WHILE EACH MODEL DEPICTS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH WESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND EXACT
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE CONTINUED A GFS-ECMWF BLEND FOR
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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