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000
AGXX40 KNHC 221847
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
247 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB high is analyzed near 26.5N90W and will meander over
the n-central gulf today then shift n into Louisiana and become
absorbed into large shifting ridge across the ern US. Moderate
anticyclonic winds currently prevail around periphery of high
with peak seas of 4-5 ft across SW and NW portions.

A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the
Yucatan Peninsula, and shift w across the waters generally to s
of 22N between 90W and 93W during the overnight hours, and
gradually lose identity along about 94W late each morning. Expect
a ne-e-se 20-25 kt wind shift along the trough axis, with seas
building briefly 6-7 ft each night. Model guidance in good
agreement on development of strong winds across most of basin Thu
night through Fri night as new cold front moves S across W Atlc
and FL and weakly backdoor into NE portions. Strong high pres
behind front to induce E to SE winds 20-25 kt with potential for
small areas to 30 kt NW waters. Seas to build 8-10 ft Fri NW
waters. High to then open up across full basin as deep layered
low moves slowly across central US Fri night through the
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Old frontal boundary from Windward Psg NE into central Atlc
drifting NNW today and continues to block ridge from influencing
E half of basin. Modest area of fresh NE winds were depicted by
14-15Z ASCAT pass and 15-20 kt through Windward Psg. Fresh NE
winds in lee of Cuba have diminished today, but will redevelop
tonight with the strong ne pulses then continuing through Thu.
Cold front to move SSE across Atlc waters next 72 hrs and being
to gradually tighten pres gradient across W half of basin
beginning Thu night into the weekend. However, some uncertainty
remains during the weekend with the development of a llvl
inverted trough N to NE of Hispaniola. Sharpness of trough will
influence wind direction across NW Carib and strength of flow
through Windward Psg and in lee of Cuba.

Winds have veered SE across NE Carib and adjacent Atlc in
response to NW drifting frontal boundary, while moderate to fresh
E to ESE trades prevail across the tropical N Atlc waters. NNW
swell moving through regional Atlc waters and NE Carib passages
today and still about 2 ft above wave guidance.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Old frontal boundary from Windward Psg to near 24N60W has begun
to drift NNW today, while slowly digging mid to upper trough
across Ern Gulf and NW Carib acting to significantly enhance
cnvtn along boundary. Nly swell across the region is fading today
but still producing 8-9 ft seas far SE waters. Next front
dropping into NW waters attm with fresh to strong SW flow just
ahead of it. Models in good agreement with front moving SSE and
laying down along about 23N Fri to Sat while current old boundary
aids in leaving an inverted trough from nrn Hispaniola NE into
Atlc ahead of the approaching front. Strong pres gradient between
trough and strong high behind the front to generate large area
of strong winds behind front and bridging over it to inverted
trough. Large area of 30 kt winds depicted by models Fri through
Sat between 60W and 75W and am gradually leaning toward a gale
warning across this area. Models not currently showing gales at
10m but with such a large area of 30 kt winds, it would appear
that gales would be likely. Seas to build 10-15 ft across this
zone and will hit the SE half of Bahamas with battering waves.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.


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