Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 271804
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
204 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE
EASTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS
RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE NW GULF WITH GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND
THESE STORMS.

UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON A WEAK LOW AND TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE BASIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LOW CERTAINTY OF THIS
OCCURRING...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS MAINLY BELOW 20 KT AND
SEAS 5 FT OR LESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NO
ORGANIZATION IS FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND THEN POTENTIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST BY MID WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE AND GASTON NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE
ATLANTIC MOVE FARTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN BEGINNING SUNDAY. BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PERSISTING LATE INTO THE WEEK. MAINLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT
THE CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY. AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THIS WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT GENERATED BY
GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING INTO THE TROPICAL
WATERS N OF 18N E OF 57W INTO THIS EVENING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N67W WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTS. SE TO S WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE
LOW...BEFORE THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF 31N TO NO LONGER
HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT MARINE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A 1009 MB LOW BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS HAD PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE KEPT WINDS LIMITED TO 15 TO 25 KT.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...S
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL CUBA...BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM GASTON WILL PERSIST IN FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 55- 60W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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