Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 311736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY IN
FAVOR OF GFS. TAFB-NWPS AND WW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER.

WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 2 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND UNDER 6 FT OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND WILL
THEN MOVE WEST OVER THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT...SUPPORTING FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INLAND OVER TEXAS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REACH THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF MID TO
LATE WEEK. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST GULF COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN
GULF. SOME ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND BRING EITHER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR
FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE GULF ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY HELPING TO
LIFT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT ON HOW TO
HANDLE THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF...AND THE LOW LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS MADE WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY IN
FAVOR OF GFS. TAFB-NWPS AND WW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL IN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IS SUPPORTING
ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SW AND THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS THE UPPER TROUGH FILLS IN THIS WEEK...WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SINCE
MODELS HAVE VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE LOW AND
RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC. THIS WILL GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG E TO
NE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING EARLY THU...WITH
FRESH WINDS SPREADING TO THE NW ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS INTO FRI. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8
FT FROM THE N COLOMBIA COAST TO S OF GRAND CAYMAN LATE THIS
WEEK.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NE TO E
SWELL WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF ZONES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...PERSISTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS UPSTREAM TRADES REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY
IN FAVOR OF GFS. TAFB-NWPS AND WW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE
OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA GENERATING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SW WINDS N OF THE
BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NE OF OUR AREA THROUGH WED AS THE
REMNANTS OF BONNIE DRIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC AND A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THESE
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. MODELS ARE FORECASTING WEAK RIDGING
TO DEVELOP FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA LATER THIS
WEEK...THEN BUILDING SE WITH AN AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG
29N BY THE WEEKEND. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS MODELS TRY
TO HANDLE THE INTERACTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE EMERGING N
OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. THESE SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE SUN THROUGH MON. HOWEVER...WITH THE
MODEL UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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