Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 291823
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 02 2016 - 12Z TUE SEP 06 2016

NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER HIGH BETWEEN
HAWAI`I AND THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE POLAR HIGH LATITUDES (NORTH OF 70N). THIS WILL LEAVE ALASKA IN
AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW, SLOWLY BUT SURELY TRANSITIONING FROM
THE CURRENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN. ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THE RECENT 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CLUSTER FAIRLY WELL WITH
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS. TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS THE SETUP BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM SUPPORT MORE
AMPLIFICATION BUT PERHAPS TEMPERED BY THE SETUP OF THE POLAR LOW
AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF ALASKA THAT
SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD A QUICKER FLOW.

INITIAL DRY PATTERN WILL TURN WETTER FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN
PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO THE BERING AND ITS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
GULF, PROBABLY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MOST NOTICEABLY, BUT STILL ONLY MODESTLY, OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD OUT OF
THE ARCTIC.


FRACASSO

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