Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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713
FXHW01 KWNH 241228
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
728 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2017

VALID 00Z WED JAN 25 2017 - 00Z WED FEB 01 2017

THE HEADLINE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOWS STRONG AGREEMENT ON
ITS OCCURRENCE, YET WITH SPREAD IN TIMING, WITH THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF ITS ENSEMBLES 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES, WITH THE SLOWER CAMP MORE STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGH SPREAD,
IT IS WORTH FACTORING IN ABOUT 1/3 WEIGHTING TOWARD THE ECMWF CAMP
OF SOLUTIONS. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
WINDS, WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, AND
BECOMING STRONG, WITH STRONG TRADES THEN PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

JAMES

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