Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 291212
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
812 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

VALID 00Z FRI SEP 30 2016 - 00Z FRI OCT 07 2016

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN AN
AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS FAVORS BROAD AND MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IN ITS WAKE THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN MODERATE TRADES BACK ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. AS THE TRADES PERSIST, REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM ULIKA IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MEAN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE TO ALSO WEAKEN, THUS CAUSING A REDUCTION IN THE TRADES.

JAMES

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