Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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638
FXHW01 KWNH 231143
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
743 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

VALID 00Z TUE MAY 24 2016 - 00Z TUE MAY 31 2016

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES MAINLY AGREE ON THE HAWAIIAN FLOW PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AND A COMPOSITE SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE SUPPORTS MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES
INTO TUE AS A LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT AND MOISTURE FUELS WINDWARD
SHOWERS. TROUGHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MIDWEEK UNDERNEATH A
DEEPENED LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS IN
DISRUPTED TRADE FLOW. LATE WEEK TRADES REBOUND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RE-ESTABLISHES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. FORECAST
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND, BUT A COMMON GUIDANCE
THEME IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENT TROUGH/LOW AND SLOW FRONTAL
PUSH TO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS DISRUPTS TRADES AND
INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE/CONVECTION.

SCHICHTEL

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