Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 301220
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
718 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 00Z SAT JAN 31 2015 - 00Z SAT FEB 07 2015

THE 30/00Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUED THE
SCENARIO FOR AN UNSETTLED SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN. THE PRIMARY
FEATURES OF THE PATTERN---A DEEP MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE---TAKING SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC---AND SLOWLY BUT EFFECTIVELY ERODING A LONG WAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.

THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS IMPRESSIVE---BUT NOT
UNPRECEDENTED. AT 500MB---THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD FROM
160W TO 155W BY DAY 7 (6/12Z) WITH THE 564DM CONTOUR CROSSING 25N
LATITUDE. BOTH 30/00Z ENSEMBLE MEANS (ECENS/GEFS) AGREE WITH THE
SCENARIO AND THE DEPTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE (AROUND 970MB) WAS
REASONABLY POSITIONED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF RUNS---AT
5/00Z---INVOF 39N/40N AND 143W.

GIVEN THE VERY REASONABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CENTRAL PACIFIC
SOLUTION---THE DETERMINISTIC 30/00Z ECMWF/GFS COULD BE UTILIZED
INTO DAY 6 WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT MIGRATIONS ACROSS
THE SUBTROPICS AND THE ISLANDS. FOR DAY 7, BLENDING THE 2 MEANS
SHOULD YIELD GOOD RESULTS AND SERVE AS A BASELINE FOR A STEADY DAY
8+ FORECAST.

VOJTESAK


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