Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 161901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 16 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 26 2014

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS OVER THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER
WESTERN CANADA EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO INTERIOR ALASKA. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, A TROUGH IS PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE A RIDGE IS
FORECAST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS FROM THE GFS
AND ECWMF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF IS GENERALLY LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. TODAY`S OFFICIAL MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND
IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE, IN PART,
TO RELATIVELY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT ANALOG CORRELATIONS.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
UNDERNEATH FORECAST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
PARTS OF THE FAR WEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR
MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH AXIS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORECAST RIDGE. MOIST FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPECTED
MEAN STORM TRACK.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20
PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 00Z AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS (TIED)

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 30 2014

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY
RELATIVELY HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE CONUS FROM COAST
TO COAST DUE, IN PART, TO DIFFERENCES IN THE COMPONENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING
AVERAGED TOGETHER. THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS GENERALLY PREDICT A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WITH A TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GFS ON THE DETAILS OF THE INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE FEATURES OVER THE CONUS. AGREEMENT IS BETTER OVER ALASKA WHERE A
TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER
THE INTERIOR. TODAY`S WEEK TWO MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS WEIGHTED MOST
HEAVILY TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE, IN PART, TO CONSIDERATION OF
RECENT SKILL AND TO ANALOG CORRELATIONS.

PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF A
TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. CONVERSELY,
THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORECAST RIDGE. BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF COLORADO CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND
GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA RELATED TO A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. NEAR TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN
ALASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPECTED MEAN STORM TRACK.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15
PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF
TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940405 - 20000410 - 19790404 - 19700327 - 19580429


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19700326 - 19940404 - 19790403 - 19700331 - 20000410


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 26 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 30 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    A
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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