Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 201851
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 20 2017

SYNOPSIS: A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO TRAVERSE THE CONUS DURING
THE BEGINNING HALF OF THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
LATER IN THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THESE SURFACE LOWS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
TO THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA DURING THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.

HAZARDS

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
AND MID-ATLANTIC, MON, JAN 23.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINE, TUE, JAN 24.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND
THE SOUTHWEST, MON, JAN 23.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS, TUE, JAN 24.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
SOUTHWEST, MON-TUE, JAN 23-JAN 24.

HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, MON, JAN 23.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CALIFORNIA, THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE SOUTHWEST, WED-FRI, JAN
25-JAN 27.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA, AND
THE ALEUTIANS, MON-TUE, JAN 23-JAN 24.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
MAINLAND ALASKA, TUE-FRI, JAN 24-JAN 27.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, MON, JAN 23.

FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS, SAT-WED, JAN 28-FEB 1.

MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SAT-TUE, JAN 28-JAN 31.

HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, SAT-MON, JAN 28-JAN
30.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE
SOUTHEAST, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MON-THU, JAN 30-FEB 2.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, THE NORTHEAST, CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY JANUARY 23 - FRIDAY JANUARY 27: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST,
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC ON JAN 23. AS THIS TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST, PARTS OF MAINE MAY RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW ON JAN 23. THESE HIGHLIGHTED
AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD.



A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST ON JAN 23. STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM MAY BRING HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
(30 FEET OR GREATER) FOR COASTAL PARTS OF CALIFORNIA ON JAN 23.



SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY BRING HEAVY SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE SOUTHWEST ON JAN
23. AS THIS LOW INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY ALSO RECEIVE
HEAVY SNOW ON JAN 24. THESE REGIONS MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OR
GREATER IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD. THIS STORM MAY ALSO BRING HIGH WINDS (30 KNOTS OR
GREATER) TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST, JAN 23-24.
HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
DRY FUELS ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE RISK IN SOME AREAS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DELINEATED A 40% CHANCE OF ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK DUE TO
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH TEXAS
PLAINS ON JAN 23 AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON JAN 24. INTERESTS AND
LOCALS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS AT
WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV.



COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY JAN 25, AS THE SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS IN THE AREA
MIGRATES EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN FAVORS MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND THE SOUTHWEST, JAN 25 TO 27.



SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA BY
JAN 24. THIS STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS MAY BRING HIGH WINDS (40 KNOTS OR
GREATER) TO PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA, AND THE
ALEUTIANS, JAN 23-24, HIGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS (30 FEET OR GREATER) FOR
COASTAL PARTS OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS JAN 23, AND HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW (3
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN 24-HOURS) TO PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST MAINLAND ALASKA, JAN 24 TO 27. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, SUPPORTING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (32 DEGREES F BELOW
NORMAL) ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA JAN 23.

FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 28 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 03: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, BRINGING COLD,
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, JAN
28 TO FEB 1. A SMALLER EMBEDDED AREA OF MODERATE RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR JAN 28
TO 31, AND A HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, JAN 28 TO 30. AN AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, JAN 30 TO FEB 2. THESE
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS SHOW ELEVATED CHANCES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
LOWEST 15TH PERCENTILE.



ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID ON JANUARY 17, THE
COVERAGE OF SEVERE OR GREATER DROUGHT FOR THE CONUS DECREASED FROM 7.96 TO
6.77%. ONE CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DROUGHT AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

FORECASTER: MELISSA OU

$$



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