Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 242055
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 24 2017

SYNOPSIS: AN LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD IN BEHIND THAT LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ACTIVE WEATHER AREA THEN
SHIFTS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

HAZARDS

SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, TUE, FEB 28.

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, MON, FEB 27.

HEAVY RAIN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND
NORTHWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY, TUE-WED, FEB 28-MAR 1.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THU-FRI, MAR
2-MAR 3.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, TUE, FEB 28.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
SOUTHWEST, MON-TUE, FEB 27-FEB 28.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
MON-TUE, FEB 27-FEB 28.

ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, TUE, FEB 28.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THU-FRI, MAR
2-MAR 3.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.

FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, SAT-MON, MAR 4-MAR 6.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, MAINLAND ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, SAT-FRI, MAR 4-MAR 10.

MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE AND MAINLAND ALASKA, SAT-MON, MAR 4-MAR 6.

MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE ALEUTIANS, SAT-WED, MAR 4-MAR 8.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 27 - FRIDAY MARCH 03: A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING NEXT WEEK. HEAVY SNOWS
ARE LIKELY IN COLORADO. AS THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, SOME HIGH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX DOWN, CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIKELY DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE ARKANSAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THAT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD,
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE
CENTER WINDS UP, THE HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY.



HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
BE 8-16 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL.



LATER IN THE PERIOD, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO WASHINGTON. SNOWFALL AT HIGHER ELEVATION WITH
RAINS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY, WITH QPF TOTALS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN 48
HOURS.



COLD AIR IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA, STARTING IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 12-20 DEGREES F BELOW AVERAGE.
THAT COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO WEEK-2.

FOR SATURDAY MARCH 04 - FRIDAY MARCH 10: RIDING IS FORECAST WEST OF ALASKA WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGING WEST OF ALASKA FAVORS MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. EARLY IN WEEK-2, COLD AIR IS LIKELY
OVER THE WEST, BUT THAT IS LIKELY TO MODERATE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEEK-2.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON FEBRUARY 21, SEVERE DROUGHT IS
DESIGNATED ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, ARIZONA, THE GREAT PLAINS, ARKANSAS,
SOUTH TEXAS, AND THE EASTERN U.S. COVERAGE OF SEVERE, OR GREATER INTENSITY,
DROUGHT THROUGHOUT THE CONTINENTAL U.S. REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AT 3.31 PERCENT.
CALIFORNIA, TO THE NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, IS FREE OF LONG-TERM SEVERE
DROUGHT.

FORECASTER: MATTHEW ROSENCRANS

$$




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