Preliminary Forecasts
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FXUS02 KWNH 270412
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1112 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

VALID 12Z THU MAR 02 2017 - 12Z MON MAR 06 2017

UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING IN THE EAST TO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THAT APPEARS TO BUCKLE BY SUN/MON ALONG AND THEN
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
CONUS-WIDE WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OVER THE NW GULF AND TX
COAST AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS (+15 TO +25F
ANOMALIES) UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR A STARTING POINT
FOR THE THU-SAT FRONTS/PRESSURES AS THERE CONTINUED TO BE SHIFTS
IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LEAD SYSTEM EXITING THE NORTHEAST BY THE
START OF THE PERIOD (THU) AND PUSHING THROUGH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES STILL WAVER ON HOW TO HANDLE THE PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE
PAC NW AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM SATURDAY ONWARD AND THUS TRENDED
TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND 18Z GEFS MEAN BY NEXT SUN/MON,
WITH PERHAPS THE 18Z GFS CLOSEST TO THEIR CONSENSUS. A SFC LOW MAY
DEVELOP AND LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT MONDAY WHICH
WOULD START TO DRAW MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.


FRACASSO


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