Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS

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FXUS02 KWNH 310531
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
130 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

VALID 12Z WED AUG 03 2016 - 12Z SUN AUG 07 2016

...OVERVIEW...

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE WESTERLIES WILL LARGELY STAY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
US/CANADA BORDER WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE GENERALLY STAYS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE TROPICS, THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE POTENTIALLY
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.


...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT...

ASIDE FROM THE 12Z GFS, WHICH BECAME QUICKER THAN THE CONSENSUS
AFTER THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IN CANADA, A BLEND OF THE 18Z GFS/GEFS
AND 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFERED A REASONABLE STARTING POINT
THROUGH ABOUT NEXT SATURDAY. THIS TAKES A SFC LOW INTO CANADA WITH
ITS COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. FRONTAL TIMING HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE THE PAST TWO DAYS
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND. DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE 12Z ECMWF OVER NW CANADA,
WHICH BLEEDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONUS. GIVEN ITS DEPARTURE FROM
THE ENSEMBLES, TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF JUST THE 18Z GFS/GEFS AND
12Z ECENS MEAN.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE
FRONT, INITIALLY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MIDWEEK THEN INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. ONLY MODESTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND IT. COOLER THAN AVERAGE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THANKS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FED BY
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN THE SOUTHEAST, THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC
FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. FINALLY, WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
MAY SPREAD RAIN INTO S TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK.


FRACASSO

$$





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