Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 070019
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT MAY 07 2016 - 12Z SAT MAY 07 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW EVW 15 N 77M 40 WNW PIH 25 NNE PIH 20 NNE U78 40 S JAC
30 E JAC 35 ESE P60 15 WSW COD 25 SSE COD 25 SSW WRL 35 NW HLD
35 N HLD 30 WNW IDV 25 WSW PIN 30 ENE GEY 30 WNW SHR 20 WNW SHR
SHR 15 NE BYG GCC 25 ENE BFU 50 SE BFU 25 ESE SIB 25 S BRX VDW
LAR 15 NE ARL 20 SW PAT 20 NNW CTD 35 SSW RWL 35 NW CAG
25 NNE VEL 15 SSW EVW.


...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND WYOMING...

A RIBBON OF ROBUST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN APPRECIABLE
COVERAGE OF MODERATE AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS WY. THE
AXIS OF FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE...INITIALLY ORIENTED
SE-NW...PIVOTS MORE E-W.  CONTINUAL EVACUATION OF UPPER LEVEL AIR
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME THAT A PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM ACTS TO ENHANCE
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW UP THROUGH 700 MB. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS WILL COUPLE WITH THE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUXES AND CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION.

THE MODELS...INCLUDING 12Z NAM CONUS NEST...CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
SOLID CONSENSUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF WY INTO EASTERN ID AND FAR NORTHEASTERN UT DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD. WE NOTED A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 1-2+ INCH
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS...HIGHEST (2-2.5") ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE WIND RIVER RANGES. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW CLUSTERING OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (3-4+ INCHES) OVER
THIS SAME AREA...WHICH GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW 3-6 HOURLY
FFG...WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREASED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
RUNOFF ISSUES.

PETERSEN/BURKE
$$




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