Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 180654
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...VALID 06Z THU SEP 18 2014 - 12Z FRI SEP 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ESE LVS 40 W AMA 45 WNW CDS 60 N ABI 15 SE JWY OCH 20 S DRI
30 NW KVNP KVNP 20 ESE KCMB 25 SW KVBS 25 S KXIH 15 SW KGVX
25 S PSX 25 WNW VCT 25 WNW BAZ 25 NNE E29 40 NNE 6R6 35 SW 6R6
70 SW 6R6 75 S E38 40 WSW MRF 50 SE MMCS 95 WSW MMCS 85 NE MMHO
110 WSW OLS 60 SSW GBN 15 W GYR 35 NW PRC 25 SSW INW 30 NW SJN
GNT 15 WSW AEG 15 SW SAF 30 SSE SKX 35 ESE LVS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E BVO EWK 30 SSW MHK 30 N EMP 60 SSE OJC 35 NNW BPK
20 SSE FLP 25 NNW RUE 25 E BVO.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 N DMA 65 SE SJN 50 SSW 4MY 15 ENE CQC 20 N CVS 30 N PVW
50 ESE LBB 10 SW DYS 15 NNW SJT 35 SSE MAF 25 N FST 45 NNW MRF
10 SW MMCS 75 S DMN 60 SSE DUG 75 SSE OLS 60 SSW OLS 50 W OLS
40 N DMA.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NW SVC 45 ENE TCS 25 NNW 4CR 65 ENE 4CR 35 SSW CVS
40 ENE ATS 20 SW CNM 20 SSE LRU 30 SSE DUG 45 SSE OLS OLS
45 NE FHU 35 NW SVC.



...ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO/TEXAS...

A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER AN AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST AZ AND MUCH OF SRN NM...THOUGH ANTICIPATE AN EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE BACK EDGE (EAST OF AZ) BY 12Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE COME DOWN A BIT EARLY THIS AM...HOWEVER AT THE
SAME TIME THE 1/3/6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOWER
OVER THIS REGION WITH THE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LONG DURATION FLOODING REMAINS A
CONCERN...THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PW AVAILABILITY (3-3.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/HIGH
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (1-3.5 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE
FFG AND ELEVATE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK. THIS DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTBY AND MODEST RAINFALL RATES (1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITHIN 3
HOURS) DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE`S REMNANT CIRCULATION.

FARTHER EAST INTO TX...A SECONDARY AXIS OF HIGHER PWS (AOA 2.25
INCHES) POOLING ACROSS THE WRN GULF INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX
WILL COMBINE WITH GREATER INSTBY (MUCAPES 500-2000 J/KG) TO
PRODUCE GREATER RAINFALL RATES...TO THE TUNE OF 2.5-3 INCHES/HOUR
AND/OR AS MUCH AS 3-5 INCHES WITHIN 3 HOURS WITHIN ISOLATED
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.


...EASTERN KS...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST OK...NORTHWEST AR...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING
CHARACTERISTICS IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD AND TOTAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS DRAWN INCORPORATING THE LATEST (00Z) SSEO 40 KM
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 30-50% OF 3 HOURLY QPF
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3 HOURLY FFG.

HURLEY
$$





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