Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 181150
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/18/16 1149Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES 13: 1130Z JAW/KC
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC
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EVENT...POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO MOVING TO THE
WEST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. VISIBLE IMAGERY PLACES LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO ACROSS THE ISLAND OF VIEQUES
AND COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW, IT MAY HAVE AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTHEAST/EAST OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY, ACCORDING TO THE 00Z SOUNDING OUT OF
SAN JUAN, WAS AROUND 2900 J/KG OF CAPE WHILE MOISTURE WAS 1.75 INCHES.
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS EASTERLY FLOW (AS SEEN BY THE
REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILE WHICH SHOWS 10-15 KNOTS OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW) ADVECTS AMPLE MOISTURE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEARS. SAMPLES OF THE
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS SHOW PWATS IN THE REALM
OF 2.0-2.2 INCHES.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1150-1750Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEARS AND MOISTURE INCREASES,
THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH COULD LEAD TO SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO, EASTERN LOCAL ISLANDS, AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECTS, EXPECT WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO, COASTAL WATERS,
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE
AND THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1871 6731 1866 6543 1773 6561 1778 6746
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