Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 110519
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/11/14 0518Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0500Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...MINNESOTA...IOWA...NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA...
LOCATION...NORTH DAKOTA...
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ATTN WFOS...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR DEVELOPING MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WAS SHOWING A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MCS FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER PORTIONS OF WY APPROACHING THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE BEGUN TO NOTICE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
CENTERED NEAR AND SE OF 9V9 AS WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING HAS BEGUN TO COUPLE
WITH INCREASING LLJ AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE S
EDGE OF WESTERLIES.  BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS WELL NW OF THE AREA BUT
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING SURFACE TROF AXIS FROM VIC OF FAR
EXTENDING SW TO JUST W OF 9V9  WITH EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF PIR.
CONFLUENT AND INCREASING 85H WIND FIELD WAS ALSO HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF SW MN EXTENDING SW TO W NE.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0500-1100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF LLJ WOULD EXPECT
CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE COMPLEXES.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF, VEERING LLJ AND SUFFICIENT
THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS ON 0Z SOUNDINGS WOULD ALL ARGUE FOR FORWARD
PROPAGATING COMPONENTS THAT EVENTUALLY DROP TO THE SE/SSE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.  DO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WITH VEERING LLJ
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME REGENERATION/BACKWARD
PROPAGATION TOWARDS UPSTREAM 85H THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS ON GOES
SOUNDER ON ANY W/SW PERIPHERIES OF COLD POOLS.  INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE APPROACHING 150% ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES WILL ALLOW
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.  AT THIS POINT BELIEVE BEST RAINFALL
AXIS AND THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY UPWIND REGENERATION AND DOWNSTREAM
TRAINING WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF SW MN/NW IA NW INTO SE SD.
FURTHER UPSTREAM BELIEVE CONVECTION JUST NE OF SNY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAK AS
IT MOVES E INTO INCREASINGLY CAPPED AIR MASS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL NE.
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TIME
PERIOD AND BEYOND WITH WEAKENING 85H WIND FIELDS.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4716 9450 4646 9361 4464 9402 4234 9495 4172 9699
4211 9978 4338 10051 4471 9818 4666 9629
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