Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 310341
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
VIZ000-PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/31/16 0341Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0315Z  JS
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC
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EVENT...SATELLITE DISCUSSION CONCERNING TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR ANIMATION SHOWS A RATHER STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE WITH APPARENT LOWER OR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF 15N AND CLOSING IN ON 60W LONGITUDE MOVING STEADILY
TO THE WEST THOUGH RECENT INFORMATION FROM TPC INDICATES THERE IS NO
SIGN OF A SFC CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY
AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE LONGER TERM WATER VAPOR ANIMATION OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DOES POINT TOWARD BETTER OUTFLOW ALOFT WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE EXPANSION OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO
THE N AND NW OF THE LOWER OR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AND BECAUSE THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING,
AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES ARE NOT PICKING UP ON ANYTHING
THAT SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME THOUGH THE HYDROESTIMATOR IS OCCASIONALLY
DEPICTING ISOLATED PATCHES OF 2.0"-3.5" TOTALS IN A 3-6 HOUR TIME FRAME
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
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RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE PASS AT 0130Z SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALREADY ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WITH AREA OF GREATER THAN 2" PW VALUES EXTENDING
AS FAR E AS 55W. THIS IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTED IN THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM
SAN JUAN WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.25". ALSO OF NOTE FROM THE SOUNDING IS
THE BRISK WESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW UP THROUGH AND ABOVE 500MB.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0345-0945Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...NOT EXPECTING THE HIGHER HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL
AFTER THIS 6 HOUR OUTLOOK PERIOD, BUT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING SO
QUICKLY AND WITH AT LEAST SOME BETTER IR SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT ALREADY AS
FAR W AS 63W, IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TOWARD THE LATTER PART
OF THE OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE 30KT EASTERLY FLOW ALREADY SEEN AT 850MB IN
THE 00Z SAN JUAN SOUNDING, BELIEVE DECENT ENHANCEMENT IS VERY POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAVORED TERRAIN. THIS IS THE LEAD MESSAGE ON THIS SYSTEM WITH
A VERY EARLY LOOK AT THE SITUATION WITH UPDATES TO FOLLOW AS THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT INCREASES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1881 6745 1881 6473 1759 6471 1754 6748
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