Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 280750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280750
OKZ000-TXZ000-281015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN OK/WESTERN-NORTH TX AND
NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280750Z - 281015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS AN MCS ADVANCES EWD ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN NORTH TX
INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO
REACH PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK AND NRN TX BETWEEN 10-12Z.  WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH TRENDS IN FORWARD SPEED
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS WRN OK
AND WRN NORTH TX...WITH THE LEADING PORTION OF THE MORE ORGANIZED
LINE EXTENDING FROM SWRN WASHITA COUNTY OK TO COTTLE COUNTY TX.
GIVEN THE RECENT LIFESPAN AND EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS...THERE IS A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR THERE TO BE AN EMBEDDED MCV WITH RADAR IMAGERY
SUGGESTING THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED OVER BORDER REGION OF THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK.  SURFACE ANALYSES AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED A WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDED GENERALLY
W-E IN VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH MODERATELY STRONG
MUCAPE EXTENDING FROM TX INTO WRN AND CENTRAL OK.  A 35-40 KT SLY
LLJ IS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF THIS INSTABILITY INTO THE SWRN-SRN
EXTENT OF THE MCS.  THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH 12Z WITH THE APPROACH
OF A PROGRESSIVE SWRN STATES TROUGH SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS THIS MCS ADVANCES EWD.

THE MOST RECENT RUNS /04-06Z/ OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MCS AND
ATTENDANT LEADING LINE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS SWRN OK AND
WRN NORTH TX INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS/
KINEMATICS.  THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE LEADING LINE OF STORMS AT 30-35
KT SUGGESTS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND IF THE
FORWARD SPEED SHOWS AN INCREASE CLOSER TO 40 KT...THEN A WW MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED.  OTHERWISE...LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH COLD POOL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE LINE OF
STORMS.

..PETERS/HART.. 05/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON   33940033 34329963 34719934 35239930 35189841 35069734
            34869658 34349638 33619664 33489694 33469727 33439786
            33619899 33769990 33940033



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.