Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 280434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280433
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-280530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Areas affected...eastern NE and western IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 280433Z - 280530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A local watch extension-in-area could be utilized to
address some remaining risk for severe gusts in the eastern
NE/western IA region but the overall severe risk appears to be
decreasing.  A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely not be
issued to the east of severe thunderstorm watch 374.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 0430Z shows a mature squall line from
Antelope county south-southwestward into Kearney county with east
movement of the line of 35-40 kt.  Grand Island recently
observed/measured a gust of 54 kt at 0421Z.  The 00Z OAX raob showed
a 7.9 degrees C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate and the KOAX VAD shows 50+
kt southerly flow in the 925-850 mb layer as of 0430,Z with a strong
LLJ.  However, despite the eastward migration of a shortwave trough
into the middle MO Valley late tonight, the 00Z OAX raob exhibited
large MLCINH with over -200 J/kg noted.  While strong/localized
severe gusts may continue east of the eastern edge of the severe
thunderstorm watch, the severe risk may lessen as the squall line
moves into an environment less supportive for intense downdrafts to
reach the surface.

..Smith/Hart.. 06/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42229664 42239528 40409519 40489685 42229664



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