Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 260555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260554
TXZ000-260630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 260554Z - 260630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER PECOS
VALLEY WILL PROBABLY MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TONIGHT.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A COUPLE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OVER PECOS AND REAGAN COUNTIES.  A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDS VERY LARGE TO
EXTREME BUOYANCY AMIDST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  A LOWER-LATITUDE H7 TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS
NRN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S AND E ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU.  A RECENT ITERATION OF THE ESRL HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE OR EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE.  GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29700158 30730218 31430136 31959922 30719884 29779963
            29700158




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