Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 272048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272047
NMZ000-AZZ000-272245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SE AZ...FAR SW NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272047Z - 272245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS TSTMS MOVE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILD CU AND TSTMS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL/SE AZ AND FAR SW NM. NELY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS CONTINUING TO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION WILL TAKE THESE STORMS INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS. AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IS WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS TO
SUPPORT SOME PRECIPITATION LOADING. PRECIPITATION LOADING COMBINED
WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES AND A DRY...WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. RECENT MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES DCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED...SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 07/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   32691189 33561233 33951142 33671034 33140930 32140855
            31410974 31601065 32141131 32691189




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