Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 010822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010822
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-011015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA...FAR SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 010822Z - 011015Z

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT OUTLOOK PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A WEAK WARM CONVEYOR...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM NEAR GALVESTON BAY INTO SOUTHWEST LA. 0-1 KM SHEAR IS
WEAK /ONLY AROUND 10 KT/ AND FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM IS MODEST
PER RECENT LAKE CHARLES VWP DATA. HOWEVER...VEERING OF THE WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT FROM THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AMID STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL PRODUCTION GIVEN A
MODERATELY BUOYANT AIR MASS PER MODIFIED 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB AND
RAP SOUNDINGS. HRRR/WRF-NSSL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME. GREATEST SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE AN INCREASING CLUSTER
MODE/DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE LIKELY LIMITS HAIL MAGNITUDE LATER
THIS MORNING.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   29749450 30909388 31279287 31479168 31369073 30899013
            30298995 29879013 29569028 29249080 29559344 29519414
            29749450



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