Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 170539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
139 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings showers mainly across the northern
portions of the area overnight. Dry and cool to end the
weekend. Much colder air moves in Monday with stronger front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1000 PM Saturday...

Other than lower dew points in the mountains, the forecast is
on track.

As of 820 PM Saturday...

Allowed for a sprinkle out of the stout altocumulus deck out
ahead of the approaching cold front tonight. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track.

As of 205 PM Saturday...

A pleasant afternoon is underway across the Central Appalachians
courtesy of high pressure parked to our south. Satellite trends
depict lingering stratocu continuing to scatter out and erode
along the I-77 and I-79 corridors in the midst of breezy surface
flow.

The overnight period features a cold front progged to sweep
through and promote increasing clouds and a slight chance for
rain showers. Models remain on board with the southern end of
the boundary staying mostly dry as it enters the central
lowlands, while the bulk of moisture stays north of the Mason
Dixon line. Retained a slight chance for rain early Sunday
morning for the northern extent of the CWA accompanying FROPA,
wrapping up along the mountains by daybreak Sunday morning.

Dry weather, albeit breezier and chillier, returns in the wake
of the front on Sunday. Afternoon highs for Sunday will fall a
few degrees short of Saturday`s readings, only reaching the mid
50s at best across the lowlands and the 40s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 206 PM Saturday...

By Monday, an upper trough will dig south across the area, bringing
in colder air and light precipitation to the region. Periods of
light snow can be expected even across the lowlands. Accumulations
should generally be limited to the higher terrain however due to the
warm ground, and lowlands may even switch over to a period of rain
or a rain/snow mix during the afternoon hours. Precipitation should
generally taper off to flurries late Monday night into Tuesday. In
addition to the snow, CAA and increased pressure gradient will
result in rather gusty winds, and this combined with the cooler
temperatures will be a bit of a shock to the system after the warm
weather. Wind chills will be in the teens to 20s at times Monday
into Tuesday, and we may get close to advisory criteria across the
higher terrain of the northern mountains for wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Saturday...

Another fast moving clipper type system looks to affect the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light snow, mainly
across the northern mountains. Temperatures moderate towards the end
of the period as heights build and southerly flow increases out
ahead of a southern stream system. Models vary greatly on what will
happen with this system, whether it will stay well to our south
along the SE coast, or will eventually move north along eastern
seaboard, providing the region with a good soaking rain for late in
the week or next weekend. Maintained a blend of models, which trends
towards the wetter solution at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 137 AM Sunday...

Despite of a passing cold front, flight conditions will remain
VFR through the period. Radar and METARs show a cold front
approaching from the west with strong wind shift and gusty
winds to affect PKB by 08Z. Light rain or sprinkles will
fall from an upper deck during the overnight hours mainly
across the northern terminals. The wind shift will spread east
affecting CRW by 10-11Z, and the rest of the eastern sites
around 11-12Z.

Gusty southwest flow becomes west along and behind the cold
front overnight into Sunday morning. There could be a lull in
gusts early Sunday morning, but gusts will continue ranging 20
to 25 kts this afternoon.

Moderate southwest flow aloft ahead of the front will become
light to moderate west behind it by 12Z, and then light west
this afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of strong gusty winds may vary from
forecast. MVFR stratocumulus could develop over the northeast
mountains late overnight into Sunday morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 03/17/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Periods of IFR conditions under snow showers possible Monday
afternoon and Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...TRM/MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ


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