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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
304 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure provides dry weather conditions and a
warming trend through the end of the week. Chance for showers
along the Middle Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

Frost advisory remains in effect until 9 AM for portions of the
Middle OH valley and Wood county in WV.

High pressure extending from the Great Lakes, south into the OH
valley and WV will provide dry weather conditions today and tonight.
The relaxed pressure gradient will allow for light and variable
winds to prevail, outside afternoon breezes due to differential
heating.

Relative humidity values are expected to mix down to mid 20 to 30
percent during the afternoon, recovering over 50 percent after 10
PM. Dead and fine fuel moistures may dip below 10% during afternoon,
although winds will remain calm to light for the most part, can`t
ruled out afternoon breezes. This will lead to another day of
marginal fire weather danger.

With plenty of sunshine under dry northerly flow, expect highs to
rise into the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the
low 50s over the higher elevations. A cold airmass remains in place
tonight under clear skies, allowing for a cold night, staying above
freezing for the most part.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 AM Thursday...

Heights build Friday ahead of low pressure emerging from the Central
Rockies yielding mild and dry conditions with afternoon highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s across the lower elevations. Mass convergence
along the periphery of the low level jet along with warm frontal
passage may yield some elevated showers, or perhaps a thunderstorm
rooted near H850 mainly near the Middle Ohio Valley late Friday
night into Saturday, although instability as well as parcel
equilibrium levels will be pretty marginal.

The warm front largely clears the region to the north by Saturday
afternoon leaving a bulk of the region in a quiet warm sector
through the balance of the weekend. This yields increasingly mild
conditions with highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to lower 80s and
highs on Sunday in the mid 80s across the lower elevations. May not
want to put that lawn work off until the weekend!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...

Another very mild day is expected Monday with highs in the mid 80s
across the lower elevations as the region remains in the dry warm
sector.

There is a decent temporal spread among model forecast solutions
regarding timing of cold frontal passage either late Monday evening
or during the day Tuesday. While kinematics will be modest with cold
frontal passage, poor mid-level lapse rates along with potentially
less favorable frontal passage timing away from peak heating doesn`t
present much of a risk for severe storms at this juncture.

The region dries out in the wake of frontal passage either Tuesday
night or Wednesday with a brief period of zonal flow before the next
cold front arrives late Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 126 AM Thursday...

Satellite imagery and METARs show areas of low stratus affecting
PKB, CKB and and EKN with MVFR ceilings. Expect these clouds to
dig south, diminishing in coverage across the west, and
persisting along the eastern mountains, perhaps reaching BKW
during the predawn hours. Rest of sites should experience VFR
conditions under light northerly flow.

Afternoon mixing could lead to some wind gusts up to 18 knots,
before subsiding around sunset. Guidance suggests skies will
gradually clear this afternoon continuing with widespread VFR
conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of low stratus may vary
from forecast.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Patchy IFR possible along the mountains Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ009.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ