Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 170200
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1000 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings showers mainly across the northern
portions of the area overnight. Dry and cool to end the
weekend. Much colder air moves in Monday with stronger front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Saturday...

Other than lower dew points in the mountains, the forecast is
on track.

As of 820 PM Saturday...

Allowed for a sprinkle out of the stout altocumulus deck out
ahead of the approaching cold front tonight. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track.

As of 205 PM Saturday...

A pleasant afternoon is underway across the Central Appalachians
courtesy of high pressure parked to our south. Satellite trends
depict lingering stratocu continuing to scatter out and erode
along the I-77 and I-79 corridors in the midst of breezy surface
flow.

The overnight period features a cold front progged to sweep
through and promote increasing clouds and a slight chance for
rain showers. Models remain on board with the southern end of
the boundary staying mostly dry as it enters the central
lowlands, while the bulk of moisture stays north of the Mason
Dixon line. Retained a slight chance for rain early Sunday
morning for the northern extent of the CWA accompanying FROPA,
wrapping up along the mountains by daybreak Sunday morning.

Dry weather, albeit breezier and chillier, returns in the wake
of the front on Sunday. Afternoon highs for Sunday will fall a
few degrees short of Saturday`s readings, only reaching the mid
50s at best across the lowlands and the 40s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 206 PM Saturday...

By Monday, an upper trough will dig south across the area, bringing
in colder air and light precipitation to the region. Periods of
light snow can be expected even across the lowlands. Accumulations
should generally be limited to the higher terrain however due to the
warm ground, and lowlands may even switch over to a period of rain
or a rain/snow mix during the afternoon hours. Precipitation should
generally taper off to flurries late Monday night into Tuesday. In
addition to the snow, CAA and increased pressure gradient will
result in rather gusty winds, and this combined with the cooler
temperatures will be a bit of a shock to the system after the warm
weather. Wind chills will be in the teens to 20s at times Monday
into Tuesday, and we may get close to advisory criteria across the
higher terrain of the northern mountains for wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Saturday...

Another fast moving clipper type system looks to affect the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light snow, mainly
across the northern mountains. Temperatures moderate towards the end
of the period as heights build and southerly flow increases out
ahead of a southern stream system. Models vary greatly on what will
happen with this system, whether it will stay well to our south
along the SE coast, or will eventually move north along eastern
seaboard, providing the region with a good soaking rain for late in
the week or next weekend. Maintained a blend of models, which trends
towards the wetter solution at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 820 PM Saturday...

A cold front crossing overnight is not likely to bring much
precipitation, although light rain showers or sprinkles are
possible across the north overnight, and in the northern
mountains into Sunday morning. Visibility restrictions are not
likely.

Altocumulus ahead of the front will be followed by stratocumulus
behind it, which is forecast to lower to MVFR at CKB and EKN
for a time early Sunday morning. This stratocu will then give
way to scattered higher cloud for Sunday afternoon everywhere,
with the possible exception of EKN. All sites should have a VFR
Sunday afternoon.

Southwest surface flow ahead of the cold front will be gusty at
times tonight, before switching to west with a lull in gusts
early Sunday morning. Gusts will range from 15 to 20 kts
tonight, and then 20 to 25 kts on Sunday, a bit higher at BKW.
Wind shift timing with the frontal passage ranges from 07-09Z
along the Ohio River to 09-11Z in and near the mountains.
Moderate southwest flow aloft ahead of the front will become
light to moderate west behind it early Sunday morning, and then
light west for the rest of the day Sunday. Brief low level wind
shear is possible when and where low level flow decouples
overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. This will
modulate the presence of low level wind shear overnight. Timing
and location of MVFR stratocumulus late overnight into Sunday
morning may vary. A shower may bring a brief visibility
restriction across the north overnight into Sunday morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 03/17/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...TRM/MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM


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