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000
FXUS61 KRLX 190243
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1041 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AIR WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENT IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. REMNANTS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE ADDS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEW FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REFORMING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY I-64 ON SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WITH
VORT MAX IN THE WEAK 500 MB FLOW TO OUR SW.

WITH MORE CLOUDS...DOWNPLAYED THE FOG IN THE SOUTH...BUT KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG WHERE IT RAINED SATURDAY EVENING.  ALSO SOME FOG ON HIGHER
RIDGES LIKE CHEAT MOUNTAIN DUE TO EAST FLOW AND LOWERING CLOUDS.

TRIED TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND POP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES ON
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY.  ALSO LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE JUST A FEW DEGREES THERE.  LOWERED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER ON THE EASTERN SLOPES...THINKING MORE INSTABILITY WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT SO
FAR SO GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AND A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TAKING OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE GENERALLY DRY. STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AIDED VIA INCREASED SUNSHINE...GIVES RISE TO JUST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM IN A FEW PLACES. WILL KEEP POPS
LOW AND MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS WITH THE SUNSHINE...AND MAY ACTUALLY BE
JUST A BIT ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...WHILE
NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HPC/ECMWF TRENDING TO GO WITH A STRONGER/FASTER UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...AND UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY WHEN THE ACTUALLY FRONT CROSSES.
RAIN ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA RIDGES IN...WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS FILTERING IN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON TRENDS SINCE 21Z SATURDAY...HOW GOT RAIN AND HOW DID NOT...
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT FOG.  BASED ON THE SE
FLOW AT 925 MB MAINTAINING ITSELF OVERNIGHT...AND THE LACK OF RAIN
AROUND CRW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL BE MORE
OPTIMISTIC AND HAVE LESS FOG DEVELOPMENT 06Z TO 12Z.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE INCREASE FOG A BIT FOR THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND ATHENS
AND PARKERSBURG.

STILL BELIEVE CEILINGS WILL LOWER ON THE SE UPSLOPE THROUGH THE
GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE
BKW OVERNIGHT.

HOWEVER...WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE 2 TO 3 THSD FT BY 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT
UNSURE OF COVERAGE OF THAT MOISTURE IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND
CEILINGS.

SO CONFIDENCE DROPS IN CEILINGS FOR 12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY.  WILL TRY TO
BE SOONER THAN PAST 2 DAYS IN HAVING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN
LOWLANDS.

HAVE CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE OF
THUNDER IS UNCERTAIN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOWING VERY SKINNY
POSITIVE CAPE AREA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND HEIGHT OF CEILINGS 09Z TO 15Z
SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SUN 05/19/13
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    M    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IF PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR FOG
POSSIBLE FOR DAWN MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/26/KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB