Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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351 FXUS61 KRLX 081749 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 149 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for showers and storms continue, with the frequency of storms posing concern for localized flooding. Severe storms are possible tonight and again Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 146 PM Thursday... Key Points: * Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning. * After a lull in activity this afternoon, strong to severe storms return this evening into Thursday morning. * A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place into Thursday morning, with some storms having the potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours. Minor changes noted to the forecast. Stationary frontal boundary oscillates south to north through tonight, while a strong mid level shortwave ride overhead, providing extra forcing to sustain strong to severe convection. Although SPC has removed the enhanced and slight risks for severe weather across our south, it maintains a marginal risk for severe storms over most of the area through Thursday morning. Storms will have the potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours. Hi-res CAMs show a lull in convective activity this afternoon, becoming active this evening and tonight. Models show another lull in activity with showers and thunderstorms returning around midnight, and again from the west during the predawn hours Thursday morning. Localized flooding remains a concern as antecedent precipitation has lowered 1 hour FFG to 0.75-1.25 inches particularity across the Ohio River Valley and across southwest Virginia. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning for portions of the Middle OHio valley, northeast KY and central and southern WV. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... This period starts off with a surface low along the western flank of our CWA border. This feature will have already lifted a warm frontal boundary north of our area while we remain in the warm sector with ongoing shower and storm activity. By this time frame, during the late morning to early afternoon, instability will be lacking and there will even be a small cap along with some low to modest shear. Severe potential will be slim, however with high DCAPE values, long skinny CAPE and super saturated low to even upper levels, flooding with be the main threat, not to mention just over 1.5 inches of PWAT values. The flood watch will be already inched into this period and will likely be extended further into this period for the rest of Thursday which is a good idea due to the aforementioned weather parameters in place. An excessive rainfall threat will accompany Thursday as well covering almost our entire CWA with a marginal threat insinuating any thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy showers which may promote some localized and isolated flash flooding issues, hence the main threat. Not too far behind is the forecast cold front which is slated to move through by 0Z which will then filter in drier air tapering off activity for the late afternoon and evening. There will be chances for showers on the table still due to wrap around flow from the surface low although no thunderstorm activity should take place. This will go on through Friday as an upper level trough rides in right behind the surface low and keeps unsettled weather on the table for us. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1215 PM Wednesday... Somewhat cooler conditions can be expected for the period, even on Sunday, as a drier northwesterly flow remains over the area. Overnight low temperatures could even dip into the upper 30s across parts of the mountains Sunday morning. Warmer and dry conditions can be expected for Monday with high pressure, surface and aloft, briefly in control. Weather becomes very unsettled again Tuesday onward, as a low in the southern stream approaches the area. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times can be expected, and the period will need to be monitored for potential water issues. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Diurnal convection has moved south of the area this afternoon, leaving the area rain free under widespread VFR conditions. Afternoon breezes gusting up to 18 knots will be possible across most sites through at least 23Z. Conditions will remain VFR until the next round of showers and storms move over the area from the west around 02Z, spreading east to affect most terminals with mainly MVFR ceilings through early Thursday morning. Brief periods of IFR conditions will be possible overnight under showers and storms. Winds 10 knots or less, gusting up to 18 knots will prevail this afternoon. Then, winds become light and variable, outside of convection after 00Z tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into Thursday, and in fog and stratus Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WVZ005>009-013>017- 024>026-033-034. OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ075-083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MEK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ