688
FXUS64 KBMX 092013
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
313 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024

Key Messages:
- Some showers and thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon,
  any storms that do develop may become severe with a wind and
  hail risk.
- Clusters of thunderstorms currently developing across East Texas
  will move east this afternoon and tonight, pushing into the area
  with greatest potential across our south-central counties.
  Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary concern, though
  risks for hail and a tornado or two will be possible with this
  activity this evening through early Friday morning.

This afternoon.

The Mesoscale Convective Systems has largely pushed southeast
into Georgia while some remaining thunderstorms are moving east
across areas generally near the Interstate 85 corridor east of
Interstate 65. For the rest of the area (and for this area later
this afternoon), convergence aloft is resulting in some sinking
air aloft while some drier air around 700 mb has moved east over
the area, forming a cap aloft and allowing instability values to
rebuild under partly cloudy skies. As temperatures continue to
climb in the continued humid low-level airmass through the
afternoon hours, instability values will struggle but still may
reach the higher convective temperature needed to overcome the
inhibition and result in showers to develop, which would quickly
develop into thunderstorms if updrafts are strong enough. These
storms would pose a damaging wind and hail risk and could affect
portions of the west and central counties from mid afternoon to
early evening. Otherwise, expect scattered clouds with winds from
the west-southwest at 6-12 mph and high temperatures ranging from
the low 80s far east to the low 90s southwest and far west.

Tonight.

Shortwave ridging currently over East-Central Mississippi will
move east of the area by this evening as a disturbance aloft moves
east toward the area. This feature is supporting the development
of thunderstorm clusters across portions of Eastern Texas that
will be in an environment supportive of upscale growth through
time that may result in another MCS that will move east generally
along the Interstate 20 corridor toward the area. Expect any
storms that developed in the afternoon to continue moving east
across the area ahead of the potential MCS, followed by the
potential MCS late tonight through the early morning hours on
Friday. Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary risk,
though there will be a chance for some hail and a tornado or two
if boundary interactions/cell mergers occur. Some patchy fog may
develop before sunrise, especially in areas that received heavy
rainfall today and tonight, though development will still be
conditional based upon lighter winds and decreasing clouds. Winds
outside of storms will be from the west at 4-8 mph. Low
temperatures will be cooler, ranging from around 60 far northwest
to the mid 60s south and central.

Friday.

A longwave trough will swing southeast over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley Regions during the day on Friday while broad low-
amplitude ridging builds over the Southern Plains. Expect chances
for lingering showers and storms to become increasingly confined
to the southeastern counties through the morning with dry
conditions returning areawide by mid afternoon. Look for
decreasing clouds through the day with winds becoming northwest at
6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s far
northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024

A nice respite from the heat and humidity over the weekend. My
see a few temperatures down into the upper 40s across the
northeast counties Saturday morning, with low to mid 50s
elsewhere. An active weather pattern setting up next week with
several southern stream impulses moving along the Gulf Coast
region. The first impulse will bring showers into Alabama on
Monday. Instability will increase late Monday night and into
Tuesday as the low level flow becomes southerly and surface
dewpoints rise into the 60s. There could be enough instability and
shear for locally strong storms, especially on Tuesday.


58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2024

The area is experiencing a break from showers and storms from
this morning with isolated showers and storms across the southeast
third of the forecast area but remaining distanced between ANB and
TOI. Expect scattered clouds across most of the area with winds
returning from the southwest at 4-8 kts. A few showers may develop
across portions of the west and central counties by mid to late
afternoon due to building instability with warming temperatures
and high humidity, but this chance is too low to include at any
terminal. Overnight, another convective complex is forecast to
move east into the area from the west, resulting in increased
clouds with chances for rain and some thunderstorm activity with
best chances across the southwest, expanding eastward with time
through the night and into early Friday morning. Some patchy fog
may develop before sunrise Friday given the recent rains across
much of the area but it is conditional dependent on light winds
and decreasing clouds.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected overnight, mainly
along and south of I-20. Rainfall heavy at times. The rain should
be exiting east Alabama by sunrise Friday. A cold front will pass
through Alabama on Friday, ushering in much drier and cooler air.
Min RH values on Friday 40-50 percent. No wetting rain expected
over the weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  79  49  77 /  40  20   0   0
Anniston    64  80  51  77 /  50  30   0   0
Birmingham  64  80  54  78 /  50  20   0   0
Tuscaloosa  66  82  54  80 /  70  20   0   0
Calera      64  80  54  78 /  70  30   0   0
Auburn      64  81  56  77 /  70  50   0   0
Montgomery  65  84  55  79 /  80  50   0   0
Troy        66  83  56  79 /  80  70   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...05