792
FXUS62 KCAE 040838
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
438 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture and shortwave energy will lead to active
weather for the weekend through early next week with showers
and thunderstorms likely. Dry conditions should prevail for
mid-week, with a return of showers and storms possible again by
Friday. Expect well above normal temperatures each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak shortwave trough is moving through the Southeast this
morning leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms. A second,
stronger, shortwave will move into the forecast area this
afternoon. With atmospheric moisture well above normal values,
we expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop leading
to widespread rain during the afternoon. Weak, deep layer shear
points to pulse type convection and makes organized
thunderstorms unlikely. Mean sbCAPE values from the HREF are
around 1000 J/kg, consistent to SREF values from the previous
day`s forecast. This points to enough instability for scattered
thunderstorms but potentially too little for much of a severe
threat, particularly considering the lack of dry air available for
evaporational cooling. The biggest threat will be localized
heavy rain if it occurs in urban or other flood prone areas.
Daytime heating will be hampered by overcast or mostly cloudy
skies and rainfall. This will keeps afternoon temps in the 70s
to low 80s.

Expect convective activity to diminish in the late evening as
the shortwave energy lifts out of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be mild overnight with lows in the 60s.
Abundant low-level moisture should lead to fog or low stratus
over the region early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure off shore will keep low-level moisture across the
area Sunday and Sunday night. Weak upper shortwave will move
through the area, and even with limited instability, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the
day. Daytime temperatures will be near normal, with highs in
the lower 80s, while overnight lows will be in the middle 60s,
which is well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday into Tuesday will see upper trough passing through the
area, with upper ridging then moving in Wednesday into
Thursday. A deepening upper trough will then push southward into
the region Friday. This pattern generally will bring a period
of showers and thunderstorm early in the week, with dry weather
then expected during the mid-week timeframe. By Friday, showers
and thunderstorms will re-enter the region ahead of the
approaching trough. Temperatures are also expected to gradually
increase from just above normal on Monday, to well above normal
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions or thunderstorms likely for much of the TAF
period.

Abundant atmospheric moisture will lead to low stratus and/or
reduced visibilities this morning, and promote numerous showers
and thunderstorms today. Expect IFR/MVFR ceilings for portions
of the morning with rainfall chances, and associated
restrictions, becoming increasingly likely after 15Z. Periods of
reduced visibility from rainfall and thunderstorms should be
expected at all TAF sites today. However confidence in the exact
timing for each site is too low for TS to be included in the
TAFs at the moment.

Expect convective activity to diminish in the late evening.
However low level moisture will remain high which should lead to
stratus and fog development again, with restrictions
potentially extending to the end of the 24 hr TAF forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Fog or stratus possible through at least Monday with abundant
low level moisture in place. Convection also likely for Sunday
and Monday with restrictions and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$