Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
456 FXUS63 KICT 110808 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 308 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry weather today - Region wide rain Sunday afternoon and into the start of next week - Another round of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday night and into Thursday looking likely && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Weak ridging behind a weak cool front will keep winds light and variable today. Temperatures are expected to remain near or a little above normal for this time of year today. This will make today the nicest day of the next seven days. Sunday, the next weather system will be encroaching on the region during the afternoon. Winds will turn to the south and moisture advection will return to the region. Rain chances will increase rapidly during the night Sunday and into Monday. Orientation of this system is not conducive to severe weather and as such, severe thunderstorms are not expected. PW values are expected to approach the 1 inch mark which is on the higher end of normal for this time of year. This higher level PW supports period of moderate to even heavy rainfall over the region which could allow some areas to rainfall over an inch during this period. The main "fly in the ointment" here is the moisture advection depicted between the main ensemble families is not uniform and neither is the 500mb vorticity field. This strongly indicates the ensembles do not have a good handle on the potential rainfall amounts as of yet. As such, confidence in most areas receiving over an inch of rain is rather low (20%) at this time. For this forecast cycle, have a higher confidence (60%) that most areas will be get rainfall in the 1/2 inch range with locally higher amounts depending on where the main 500mb low tracks. Monday afternoon and into Tuesday, the rain will come to an end as an area of ridging will build into the CWA. Temperatures will remain near normal for Tuesday as the system that will bring the rain on Sunday night and Monday will not bring much if any cooler air with it. By Wednesday and into Thursday, the next weather system will approach the CWA. Ensembles are still having difficulty resolving this next system but most agree this next system is likely to bring another round of rain. Orientation of this system presented on this forecast cycle is not conducive to severe weather and may inhibit thunderstorm development. At this point, it appears more wide spread shower with embedded thunderstorm event. Confidence in this solution remains low (30%) and will need to see further forecast cycles before confidence can improve. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Winds will remain light and variable until after 00Z. Winds will then turn to the south and VFR CIGs are expected to move into the region from west to east. KRSL and KGBD are the mostly likely terminals will get the CIGs toward the end of the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...ELM