299
FXUS64 KOHX 091139
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
639 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The severe weather threat has ended for Middle Tennessee. There
are some lingering showers affecting the Cumberland Plateau and
locations south of I-40. Most of the mid state remains covered by
Flash Flood Warnings due to the excessive rainfall over the past
24 hrs. And as river levels rise, there will be some river flood
products issued as stages increase above action (or flood).
Otherwise, there will be considerable cloud cover this morning and
decreasing clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures will be quite
warm today, with most spots reaching the low to mid 80s. We`ll
start to feel the cooler air tonight and especially tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Middle Tennessee is in for a stormy night. All modes of severe
weather remain on the table owing to an environment that is still
moist, unstable, and highly-sheared. Most of the OHX CWA is under
a Flash Flood Warning, in additional to a Tornado Watch for the
entire mid state, and severe storms currently extend as far west
as eastern Arkansas. The MRMS radar-estimated rainfall totals for
the past 24 hours show a wide swath of 7-10" amounts extending
from eastern Montgomery County through much of Robertson and
Sumner Counties. This is in addition to the tornado and wind
damage and large hail reports that have occurred across the mid
state during the past several hours. A significant portion of
Middle Tennessee remains under a moderate risk of severe storms
for the remainder of the night. The severe threat will continue
until a cold front, which is currently situated west of the
Mississippi River, finally pushes this volatile air mass east of
us. Expect some rain and storm chances to linger into Thursday
morning, especially in areas to the east and south of Nashville,
but the severe threat should end by 12Z. Look for cooler
temperatures to accompany the drier air Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cooler temperatures will last through the weekend, and the only
rain chances this weekend look to affect mainly the Upper Plateau
Saturday afternoon, and these will be relatively inconsequential.
Temperatures will gradually warm back up next week, and more
active weather systems look to affect the mid state beginning
Monday and without much of a break, just like this week, although
Middle Tennessee isn`t yet targeted for any severe weather risk in
the SPC`s extended outlook. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day
outlooks for Middle Tennessee favor near normal temperatures and
above normal rainfall, meaning that we`re in for a very wet month
of May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Finally, the prolonged active weather event that has spanned the
past 24 hours is winding down. With the exception of some
lingering light showers at KCSV, the departing convection is not
impacting any of our terminals. We do expect a brief period of
MVFR ceilings later this morning as the surface boundary comes
through, but we`ll return to VFR afterwards. Winds will be
somewhat gusty today as they shift around to the NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  58  73  52 /  30   0  10   0
Clarksville    83  55  71  51 /  10   0  10   0
Crossville     79  54  68  45 /  70  10  20   0
Columbia       85  58  73  49 /  40  10  10   0
Cookeville     80  55  68  48 /  60   0  20   0
Jamestown      79  54  67  45 /  60  10  30   0
Lawrenceburg   85  58  73  49 /  40  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   85  58  73  49 /  40  10  10   0
Waverly        84  56  71  51 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Rose