961
FXUS65 KSLC 081009
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
409 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread precipitation has ended, but the storm
system responsible will morph into a cutoff low that will meander
and weaken across Utah through the weekend. This will allow
temperatures to gradually warm with isolated afternoon showers and
storms through the weekend, particularly across central and
southern Utah terrain and adjacent valleys. Additionally, east
winds Thursday and Friday will create gusty conditions along
lee side terrain and near canyons for northern and central Utah.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...Radar shows that most of
the precipitation has ended across the area, and so far the lake
effect snow band that hi-res guidance was advertising has not
materialized. Assuming this band does not develop, the main
features to focus on across the area will be the freezing
temperatures across some valley locations and northerly gap winds
across lower Washington county.

The gap winds across lower Washington county, where gusts have
been as high as ~50 mph in spots, will continue to gradually
diminish allowing for the wind advisory to expire at 14Z. Some mid
level clouds are keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer, but
there are still freezing temperatures across The Swell, Box
Elder, Tooele, and Utah counties where freeze warnings remain
through the morning hours.

More diurnal showers will develop across northern Utah/SW Wyoming
this afternoon. These showers will be similar to today: short-
lived, containing graupel and locally gusty winds, and the
potential for some isolated lightning.

This trough responsible for the unsettled weather will cut off
from the mean flow and leave a closed low across Utah on
Thursday. Given that almost all of the guidance has shifted to
this solution, showery afternoon precipitation will remain across
central and northern Utah. With the cyclonic flow around this low
pressure, easterly winds aloft will direct these showers from
east to west mainly on the east facing aspects of the terrain.
These easterly winds will also help to enhance the potential for
some low end downsloping and canyon winds along the leeward side
of the terrain of northern Utah and the Book Cliffs.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...The beginning of the long term
period will feature an upper low cut off from the main belt of
westerlies as it spins across the central Great Basin. Easterly flow
along the poleward side of this low will be maintaining a downslope
wind event along the northern Wasatch Front and eastern Cache
Valley. High-res guidance suggests this event will be peaking early
Friday morning with gusts in the 45-55 mph range (70% probability)
with perhaps the most favored spots such as Park Lane in Farmington
occasionally exceeding 60 mph.

With the upper low spinning over the region, cold air aloft coupled
with daytime heating will support diurnally driven convection Friday
and likely Saturday as well. By Sunday, the consensus is to begin
lifting this low out of the region. Roughly 30% of ensemble members
delay this eastward progression until late Sunday into Monday,
maintaining a chance of convection Sunday afternoon, however the
majority of ensemble guidance begins building shortwave ridging
across the eastern Great Basin by late Sunday.

Temperatures through the weekend will gradually modify despite the
presence of the upper low. Max temperatures by Friday afternoon will
run near to slightly below climo, then trend 3-5F warmer Saturday
and again Sunday. This warming trend will continue into Monday,
before heights lower in response to a shortwave trough digging
through the northern Rockies during the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...There is a 20% chance of snow showers impacting
the terminal through 15Z, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
through the period with CIGS in the 4000-6000 ft range persisting
through the morning before scattering out by 18Z. Surface winds will
remain from the northwest throughout the day.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR Cigs in the 4000-6000 foot
range will persist across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming this
morning before scattering out this afternoon. A northerly gradient
will maintain northerly surface winds across the region throughout
the day today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Widespread precipitation will transition to
isolated afternoon showers and storms for Wednesday across
northern Utah. These isolated afternoon showers will shift into
central and southern Utah Thursday through the weekend as a cutoff
low meanders across the state. These showers will mainly be
confined to the terrain and eastward facing aspects along with
adjacent valleys. Additionally, expect breezy easterly winds to
develop on the west side of terrain close to canyon mouths and
benches on Thursday and Friday across northern and central Utah.
Temperatures will gradually warm as this low weakens.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Freeze Warning until noon MDT today for UTZ102-103-106-121-130.

     Wind Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for UTZ123.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mahan
LONG TERM...Seaman
AVIATION...Seaman
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan

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