Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FNUS71 KALY 171148
FWSALY

Spot Forecast for Saratoga Stop 3...National Park Service
National Weather Service Albany NY
748 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
An approaching warm front will bring increasing clouds today,
with showers developing from southwest to northeast this
afternoon into tonight. Cool and unsettled conditions will
continue through Friday, with occasional showers. Improving
conditions arrive for the upcoming weekend, although
temperatures will remain a bit below normal.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Dewpoint............31.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 5 to 8 mph in the late morning and
                    early afternoon becoming light.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (15100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24  38  51  53  56  58  66  75  83
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............44  48  52  55  59  61  62  64  62
Dewpoint........31  32  32  30  30  31  30  32  33
RH..............60  54  46  38  33  32  30  30  33
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   7   6   5   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.9   10  12  9   8   7   6   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.3 2.9
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.9   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   6
LVORI...........3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12  13  14  14  14  14  15  15  15
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Dewpoint............37 increasing to 42 early in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    early in the evening, then becoming light late
                    in the evening becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph
                    overnight increasing to 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast 7 to
                    13 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.08 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........87  90  94  94  95  95  94  94  93  93  93  93
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  30  40  40  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  60  56  53  52  51  50  49  48  47  47  47
Dewpoint........36  39  41  42  42  44  44  44  44  44  44  44
RH..............38  46  57  66  69  77  80  83  86  89  89  89
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  E   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   5   5   5   3   3   5   6   7   8   9   10
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   6   5   5   6   8   9   12  14  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   8   9   8   8   7   8   9   10  12  12  13
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
Haines index....4   4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12  10  7   5   4   4   4   5   6   8   10  13
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the morning, then chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Dewpoint............42.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (31500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.10 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........94  94  95  96  96  97  96  94  93  93  94  94
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).60  70  70  70  70  60  60  50  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............46  46  46  46  47  47  48  48  48  48  48  47
Dewpoint........43  43  42  43  42  41  41  41  41  41  41  41
RH..............89  89  86  89  83  79  77  77  77  77  77  79
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..10  9   8   8   9   9   8   7   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.14  13  12  12  13  13  12  9   8   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.14  15  16  17  17  17  16  15  14  14  14  14
LVORI...........4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17  21  25  28  31  32  30  27  25  25  24  23
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...JPV
Requested by...Michael Grismer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411201.0/ALY
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael_grismer@nps.gov
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