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000
FXUS64 KMEG 180435
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CAN/T RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THUS WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS
THESE AREAS OTHERWISE WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR.
HOWEVER STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME OF SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY...THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS HAVE ALREADY DETERIORATED TO LIFR AT KMKL AND KTUP THIS
EVENING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
EARLY SAT. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KMEM AND KJBR OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRAS AROUND KTUP SO INCLUDED A
VCSH THERE. LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT
18/14Z...EVENTUALLY TO VFR BY 18/17Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT INCREASING TO SOUTH AT
7-8 KTS SAT AM.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  69  87  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
MKL  64  84  67  87 /  20  20  20  10
JBR  64  85  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
TUP  67  85  68  88 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$