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000
FXUS61 KRNK 190222
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1022 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SECOND FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW JERSEY
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING
IN SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 02Z/10PM.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH CLEARING AND HIGH ENOUGH DEW POINTS TO ADD MORE FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LATEST WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT AND IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE ALIGNED THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND KEPT A LOW
CHANCE IN THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT.

THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
KEPT THE LIGHT POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. PLAYED HIGHS WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO COOLER MOS VALUES FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT INCREASES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A BROAD EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT...AND A DRY MID LEVEL EASTERLY
WIND...LOOKING AT MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP
THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...NOT TOO HOT...NOT TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...850 TEMPS
CREEPING TOWARD +2OC FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 80SF...TESTING 90F DEGREES FOR
THE URBAN AREAS. NO REAL FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE MTNS...SO KEPT ANY PRECIP
THREAT MAINLY DIURNAL AND PRIMARILY TARGETED TO THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...BUT EXPECT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND
AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/FZ LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION CONDITIONS...FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...INCREASED DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH LOCALLY BRIEF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.
AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS BR...LOCALLY IFR FG...ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JC/KK/RAB