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374
FXUS61 KRNK 080652
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
252 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with
a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through
Thursday. Some storms could be severe. Drier and slightly
cooler weather arrives for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through
tonight.

2) Heavy rainfall from storms could result in localized
flooding.

Upstream convection over the Ohio Valley this morning formed
along a warm front and is now primarily outflow driven as it
advances southward. Will continue to see this line of storms
move south into southeast West Virginia by daybreak, but in a
much more weakened state than what is occuring now. Still may
have some rumbles of thunder associated with it, along with a
few gusts as it moves through. Not likely that it makes it past
the southeast West Virginia mountains.

There is some uncertainty among CAMs with the progression of
the upstream convection and where it lays down a residual
outflow boundary. Wherever this boundary ends up, it will likely
be the focus for renewed convection this afternoon/evening. At
the moment, looks to get to around the VA/NC border by early
afternoon. The other caveat in the forecast today will be
residual cloud cover from the decaying storms to the northwest.
Depending on how long cloud cover remains in place will
determine the degree of destabilization that occurs. If skies
are mostly sunny through most of the day, can definitely
increase confidence on severe storm potential this
afternoon/evening.

A potentially second round of storms may impact the area late
evening/overnight from convection that develops over Kentucky
late this evening, which will be more associated with a surface
low moving through the Ohio Valley tonight. Any storms that
develop today/tonight will especially have the potential for
damaging winds, large hail, and a low risk potential for
tornadoes as well.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1. Showers and storms possible again late Wednesday.

A surface low tracks into and across the northeastern US, with
a slow moving cold front trailing through the Mid Atlantic into
the Central Appalachians, keeping the chances for showers in the
west through Wednesday morning. A break in the precipitation
through the middle part of the day is expected as the upper
shortwave associated with Tuesday`s system moves farther east.
Westerly winds increase behind this departing system, also
helping to bring an end to the lingering showers. The
approaching cold front will serve as a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development late Wednesday and into Thursday.
Mostly sunny skies Wednesday and plentiful atmospheric moisture
will result in greater instability. With better forcing at the
surface and aloft, there is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms late Wednesday, main hazards being damaging wind,
large hail, and heavy rain, given above the continued normal
PWATs.

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, with highs in the
upper 70s in the west, mid to upper 80s in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

  - Numerous thunderstorms Thursday
  - Cooler at the end of the week

A surface low pressure system tracks from the Ohio Valley to off the
East Coast Thursday, pushing a significant cold front through the
Mid Atlantic region. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
Thursday morning ahead of the front.

Deeper moisture pushes south through the Carolinas on Thursday night
and Friday as precipitable water values drop below an inch and
surface dew points lower into the 40s. At upper levels flow becomes
more west to northwest as a long wave through develops over the
northeast United States. A short wave coming through the northwest
flow will bring a cold front through the region Saturday night and
Sunday. This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the mountains.

Maximum temperatures Friday through Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal, with a gradual warming trend next week. The coldest
overnight lows will be Friday night. A few of the typically favored
locations may cool into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Areas of patchy fog this morning will continue to impact vsby
and potentially cigs as well. Where fog does develop, expect
periods of IFR/LIFR through daybreak.

A line of storms over West Virginia this morning will continue
to progress south. Will see some increased cloud cover from
these, along with the potential for an isolated thunderstorm and
some gusty winds from 10z to perhaps 13z for LWB/BLF.

Gradually clearing through the day and thunderstorms may
redevelop again late this evening and overnight. Periods of
IFR/LIFR. Winds generally SSW today.

Forecast confidence is average.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Unsettled weather is expected through Saturday. Daily threat of
SHRA/TSRA through at least Friday. This will bring periods of
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through
Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
Some improvement over the weekend especially Sunday.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...BMG