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000
FXUS61 KRNK 141410
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING A WARMER RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY THIS MORNING HAS THE UPPER
TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH 10 AM TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST AREAS. SUNSHINE REMAINS
ABUNDANT...ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST...CARRYING WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA.

DURING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR
AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE IN THE MIX. REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND WILL STILL BE LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT
HIGHER ELEVATION.

FOR TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE
WARMEST 85H AIR WILL BE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...
PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT LOOKS TO SCRAPE BY JUST TO THE
NORTH LATE. SINCE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH
ANY LIGHT PRECIP PER BUILDING HEIGHTS...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES DOWN
SLIGHTLY...BUT LEFT IN A LOW CHANCE FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
EAST TO NW OF LYNCHBURG OVERNIGHT PER LATEST ENSEMBLES. THIS MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR A SHARP CLOUD GRADIENT WITH MORE CLOUDS I-64 AND
POINTS EAST...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HEADING SOUTH TOWARD THE
VA/NC BORDER. JET ALOFT WILL REALLY RAMP UP LATE AS +17C 85H TEMPS
SURGE IN FROM THE WEST ON 40+ KT WEST/NW WINDS. SOUNDINGS HESITANT
TO MIX MUCH OF THAT TO THE SURFACE IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN BUT
COULD SEE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS HIGHER PEAKS ACROSS THE SW
LATE. LOW TEMPS MUCH MILDER WITH MIXING KEEPING THE RIDGES ABOVE
55-60...WHILE VALLEYS PERHAPS DECOUPLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW 40S...WITH
MAINLY 50-55 ELSW GIVEN A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUMMER RETURNS WITH A
JUMP IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 19 DEGREES AND A DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
TOWARDS NAM. WENT WITH THE HIGHER ADJMET FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALUES FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. KEPT IT DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO MID 50S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ON THURSDAY FROM THE MASON-DIXON LINE
INTO OUR CWA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER THAN NAM WITH THE PROGRESS.
TRICKY FORECAST: CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG THE FRONT MAY MOVE THE
BOUNDARY...ZONAL FLOW DOES NOT SEEM FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF A SOUTHERN
PUSH. WITH RECENT RAINS...ANOTHER ISSUE TO CONSIDER IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS. GFS AND ECMWF
PLACED THE HIGHEST QPF OVER WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. WENT WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY FROM LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAIN TO THE MID 80S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PLAYED LOWS FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO PAST FEW RUNS BRINGING SOME ENHANCED LIFT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CHALLENGING TO NARROW DOWN BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS AND DAILY HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT LONG WAVE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. SO HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SEEING LOCALIZED VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FRZG FOG/STRATUS AT KLWB
ATTM THAT SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY WITH THE ONSET OF HEATING. OTRW
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SLIDES SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
PERIOD OF 8-12K FT CIGS ACROSS THE SE WVA SITES BY MIDDAY AND ELSW
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WITH A
PERIOD OF LOWER STRATO- CU POSSIBLE AROUND KLWB TONIGHT AND EAST
TO KLYH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS MOST WILL STAY VFR INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANY -SHRA ALSO REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES. WEST WINDS WILL TURN MORE SW AND BECOME GUSTY OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON ESPCLY AROUND KBLF WHERE A FEW GUSTS
TO OVER 20 KTS APPEAR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT INCREASE ALOFT AS THE SURGE
OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES. LATEST MODELS SHOW A 35-45 KT JET JUST
OFF THE SURFACE AFTER MIDNIGHT SO INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LLWS AT ALL
SITES EXCLUDING KDAN LATE.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND THEN STALLS NEAR THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/KM