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000
FXUS61 KRNK 141935
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.  THE STRATOCUMULUS AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...AND
WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECT VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR COOLING. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ADDED SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT. PLAYED LOWS CLOSE TO THE COOLER ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. DRY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO GET ACTIVE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND DEEP SW TO WEST FLOW
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AGAIN. SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY ON
WHICH MTN CONVECTION FORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A SFC TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION BUT PLACEMENT VARIES. MAJORITY SHOWS
BETTER THREAT ARRIVING INTO THE WRN CWA AFTER MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS ADDED. KEPT HIGH CHANCE IN THE EAST. AT THE MOMENT SPC
AND MODELS INDICATING LOWER THREAT OF SVR WITH DYNAMICS LACKING AS
STRONG WIND FIELDS STAY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKS
UNSTABLE ENOUGH THAT ISOLATED SVR COULD OCCUR.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THINKING MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP MONDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
90 SOUTHEAST TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WEST. MONDAY WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED
YESTERDAYS. STILL DEFINITELY A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. TIMING SUGGESTS MOST
ACTIVITY TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.

FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA MIDWEEK.
AT THIS TIME...OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PARKING ITSELF IN THE MID ATLANTIC. SFC WINDS TURN FROM NORTH TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST THU-FRI NEXT WEEK SO THAT IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA COMBINED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NEARBY TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES. KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW GIVEN SFC PATTERN.

CONDITIONS WARM/MUGGY MON NIGHT-TUESDAY START TO COOL A LITTLE
BEHIND THE FRONT FRONT TUE NIGHT-THU. TEMPS STILL STAY SEASONAL INTO
FRIDAY GIVEN THE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST...SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO CLIMB SOME AGAIN.





&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AT ROA/BCB/LWB/LYH/BLF AND THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. NORTH SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN VFR
WEATHER. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWED
FOR PATCHY FOG AT KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE FOG AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING... KLWB/KBCB...OTHERWISE VFR. THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD/ALONG AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK