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000
FXUS65 KABQ 241751
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN IMPACT WINDOW FOR AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN NM. CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM WILL BE UNDER VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME
LATE DAY VIRGA AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATELY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NMRS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AFT
22Z. GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS BASED ON ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SPC
WILL BE OVER THE NE PLAINS FROM NEAR KRTN AND KLVS EAST TO
THE TX STATE LINE...HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST NEARLY ALL OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE UNDER SOME THREAT. MODELS DO DISAGREE
WITH HOW LONG PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST AND WHETHER OR NOT
AN MVFR LOW CLOUD LAYER WILL SET UP FROM THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE TO HOLD PREDOMINANT GROUP FOR BKN025
IN TAFS IS AT KTCC AND KROW. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013...
CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGE MAKING ROADS
RATHER FAR WESTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE LAST
NIGHT. DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT JUMPED FROM 5F TO 41F IN AN
HOUR AND CURRENTLY STANDS AT 49F. EXPECTING THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO MIX OUT BY MID
TO LATE MORNING BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF MORE THAN
JUST A VERY SHALLOW PUSH...POSSIBLY BEING ENOUGH TO GET A HIGH
BASED SHOWER OR TWO GOING AS FAR WEST AS THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE EAST
SLOPES...A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A CHANCE AT PRODUCING
WETTING RAINS. MODELS INDICATING FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH- CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO CHAVES COUNTY.
STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE FAVORED
AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE EASTERN PLAINS...IN GENERAL...THE FAVORITE AREA FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS.

SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO ON TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WESTWARD
PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE DIVIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE JEMEZ...SANDIA...MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS.

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL START TO DRY THINGS
OUT FROM THE WEST. STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MAKE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
FOR BOTH DAYS BUT STILL COMING IN WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TUESDAY AND PASS SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THE COOLER AND `WETTER`
DIRECTION AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED CONSENSUS. 33

.FIRE WEATHER...
...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...

A TALE OF TWO AIRMASSES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
DRYLINE PUSHING A TAD FURTHER EAST EACH DAY. POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES AND SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUMS WILL CHARACTERIZE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ACTS AS FUEL FOR WETTING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO STRONGLY CONTRASTED AIRMASSES...
GENERALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY...BUT
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS STAYING ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY CENTRAL AND
WEST...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT WIDESPREAD. WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND OVER THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WETTING RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE DISCRETE NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.

WINDS ALOFT PICK-UP A TAD ON SUNDAY AND THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE FURTHER EAST...BRINGING CRITICAL HUMIDITIES TO NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY ACROSS ZONES
103...104 AND 107.

INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE TRENDS DOWN
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER
OUR AREA...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS CONTINUING THE TREND FROM THE 12Z
RUN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTION DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS...SO WON`T DISCOUNT IT. SO...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY...DECREASING CONFIDENCE
TUESDAY...THEN AT LEAST SOME HOPE FOR WETTING RAINS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$