091
FXUS65 KABQ 210529
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1129 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue this evening, focused near and just east of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains. Additionally, the east canyon wind will return
in the Albuquerque Metro below canyons tonight, but will not be
as strong as the last two nights. Temperatures on Sunday will
continue to be well below normal across the east, but should be
near or above normal across the west. Temperatures will rebound on
Monday across the east, but another backdoor cold front will
arrive on Tuesday, though temperatures will not drop as much.
Spring winds return late in the week. Thursday looks to be the
windiest day with critical fire weather concerns likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The dampening Pacific trough is moving overhead and interacting with
upslope forcing and moisture provided by the backdoor cold front to
produce a round of convection that is moving east off of the
Continental Divide this afternoon. A few cloud to ground lightning
strikes have been noted so far today in the northern mountains
north and east of Los Alamos. This round of convection will produce
very little measurable precipitation, but the round in southern CO
moving southeast currently may bring some notable rain with graupel
early this evening from the northern Sangre De Cristos east along
the CO border to near the OK border. Otherwise, convection will
gradually diminish with the loss of daytime heating. The front is
forecast to surge back to the west this evening and overnight,
resulting in another gusty east canyon wind below the mouth of
Tijeras Canyon to the Albuquerque Sunport, but not as strong as the
last two nights and well below advisory threshold. Low stratus will
redevelop across eastern NM tonight with some potential for patchy
fog, mainly from the central highlands south to near Ruidoso. Rising
pressure heights are forecast Sunday into Sunday night as broad and
weak riding gets going over the region. Sunday will be warmer as a
result, but the frontal layer will be stubborn to move out across
eastern NM where highs are forecast to be 10-20 degrees below normal
while western NM will be several degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Though upper level ridging will be over NM on Monday, some mid
level moisture will be moving through the ridge. However, low
levels will remain dry. As such, by late afternoon, build-ups
across western NM will likely yield virga and perhaps some gusty
winds, especially as DCAPE values rise to near 900 J/kg. Lifted
indices around -1 to -2 may also allow for a lightning strike or
two. Added a small area of dry thunder to the forecast, but this
may need to be expanded. These virga showers, etc. will move
toward the Rio Grande Valley by early evening before dissipating.

Upper level ridging will persist on Tuesday, though the main event
on Tuesday will be a backdoor cold front sliding south and
westward across the plains. The NAM is faster with the progression
of the front than other operational models, and tended to favor
this solution. Upslope flow onto the Sangre de Cristo Mtns may
yield a few showers in the afternoon.

An upper level low across the Pacific will be the next feature of
interest for the mid to late week period. There is considerable
disagreement with regards to how fast this system will eject
eastward with the GEFS/GFS around 12 or so hours faster than the
ECMWF/EPS/GEPS. At this time, it appears the upper level ridge
over NM may begin to slide eastward Wednesday as the system moves
over SoCal. This will allow for breezy southwest flow to develop
over NM. Then Thursday looks to be dry and windy, with some
continued breezy to windy conditions on Friday. Precipitation
looks to be paltry with this system, with only a few light showers
and thunderstorms over the northern high terrain, but another
system over the weekend may bring better chances for precip, at
least over northern and western NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Backdoor front in the eastern half of NM will continue to push
westward to near the Continental Divide overnight. Areas of low
stratus clouds will continue to expand over the eastern half of
the state again late tonight, gradually dissipating from late
morning through early afternoon Sunday. Low ceilings with
widespread MVFR and areas of IFR conditions are forecast for
central to eastern New Mexico through at least Sunday morning with
areas of low ceilings hanging on through early to mid afternoon.
Only patchy low ceilings are forecast to return to the east slopes
of the central mountain chain eastward Sunday evening/night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Warm, dry and unstable conditions prevail across western NM today,
while the remainder of the areas remains under the influence of a
fairly moist backdoor cold front. A round of mostly non-wetting
convection is underway and moving east from the Continental Divide
and has already produced a few lightning strikes in the northern
mountains. Chances for wetting precipitation will be limited to this
evening near the Colorado border going east from the northern Sangre
De Cristos. Rising pressure heights associated with weak ridging
will be the story through early week, with a warming trend and
temperatures rising well above normal by Tuesday. Residual moisture
combined with warmer temperatures and increased instability will be
sufficient to produce a round of dry convection along and
immediately east of the Continental Divide on Monday afternoon,
where a few dry lightning strikes are possible. Spotty critical fire
weather conditions are likely on Monday as well, mainly across the
northeast highlands where winds are forecast to pick up with a
little lee side troughing. A weak backdoor cold front will bring a
wind shift to eastern NM on Tuesday, but elsewhere hot, dry and
unstable conditions are forecast. An upper level trough is forecast
to move through the region late next week, bringing the potential
for widespread critical fire weather conditions Thursday then
limited to eastern NM on Friday as the trough exits to the
northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  40  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  70  34  71  33 /  20   5   0   0
Cuba............................  69  37  69  37 /  20   5  10   0
Gallup..........................  76  34  76  34 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  68  37  72  38 /   0   0  10   0
Grants..........................  72  34  74  36 /   5   0   5   0
Quemado.........................  70  39  74  41 /   0   0  10   0
Magdalena.......................  69  44  70  47 /  10   5  10   0
Datil...........................  70  41  70  42 /   5   0  10   0
Reserve.........................  76  35  78  37 /   0   0   5   0
Glenwood........................  81  49  81  48 /   0   0   5   0
Chama...........................  63  33  65  33 /  40  10  10   0
Los Alamos......................  61  40  66  44 /  30  20  10   0
Pecos...........................  59  34  63  37 /  20  20  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  60  36  62  38 /  50  30  10   0
Red River.......................  62  30  56  31 /  60  40  10   0
Angel Fire......................  58  27  58  28 /  50  30  10   0
Taos............................  66  33  66  33 /  40  20  10   0
Mora............................  54  32  61  34 /  30  20  10   0
Espanola........................  67  43  72  42 /  30  20  10   0
Santa Fe........................  62  41  66  44 /  20  20  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  67  40  69  40 /  20  20  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  49  72  51 /  20  20   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  73  46  74  48 /  20  20   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  75  46  76  48 /  20  20   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  73  46  74  48 /  20  20   0   0
Belen...........................  76  46  77  47 /  10  10   5   0
Bernalillo......................  74  46  75  46 /  20  20   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  74  44  76  46 /  20  20   5   0
Corrales........................  73  45  75  46 /  20  20   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  73  44  76  46 /  20  20   5   0
Placitas........................  68  44  71  47 /  20  20   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  71  45  74  47 /  20  20   0   0
Socorro.........................  79  48  78  48 /  10  10   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  38  66  45 /  20  20   5   0
Tijeras.........................  64  40  69  45 /  20  20   5   0
Edgewood........................  58  37  68  40 /  20  20   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  61  35  68  34 /  20  20   5   0
Clines Corners..................  55  33  60  36 /  10  20   5   0
Mountainair.....................  62  37  68  42 /  20  20   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  62  36  68  39 /  10  20   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  67  44  69  43 /  20  10   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  52  36  59  39 /  40  10  10   0
Capulin.........................  53  33  59  35 /  20  30   5   0
Raton...........................  58  33  62  31 /  30  50  10   0
Springer........................  58  34  61  32 /  20  30  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  56  33  57  36 /  10  20  10   0
Clayton.........................  53  34  59  40 /  20  30   0   0
Roy.............................  55  35  56  37 /  20  10  10   0
Conchas.........................  62  39  59  40 /  30  10   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  59  39  58  38 /  10   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  60  37  59  39 /  40   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  53  39  57  39 /  70  10   5   0
Portales........................  52  39  58  39 /  70  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  58  40  59  39 /  40  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  62  45  59  45 /  40  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  54  40  56  38 /  20   5   0   0
Elk.............................  47  38  57  37 /  30   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...33