112
FXUS63 KABR 130839
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
339 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another batch of elevated smoke will move into northeastern SD
  and western MN today through this evening. South central South
  Dakota could see some surface smoke today.

- Precipitation chances return to the area Tuesday afternoon through
  Wednesday evening (40-70% chance), then again Thursday afternoon
  and evening (30-40% chance).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A shortwave currently over southern Saskatchewan will move southeast
across the North Dakota and into Minnesota today. The main impact
from this shortwave will be increasing elevated smoke across the
northeast portion of the CWA today into tonight. Near surface smoke
can be expected at times today, mainly across central SD, and over
the far northeast corner of the CWA.

An upper level trough currently over the Pac NW will track eastward
across the northern Rockies today, and into the western Dakotas
later tonight. Various CAMS show showers moving into the far western
CWA after 6Z Tuesday, with little eastward movement until after 12Z,
or perhaps closer to 18Z. The trough and associated surface low
pressure system progress eastward Tuesday afternoon, with pcpn
spreading eastward toward the James River valley before 0Z
Wednesday. Overall, the eastern half of the CWA has at least an 80-
90 percent chance of seeing dry conditions on Tuesday. The western
half of the CWA has a 20-70 percent chance of seeing showers and
weak thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An upper level trough will slowly track across the region Tuesday
night through Thursday night. Some weak energy will move through
Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a more potent shortwave moving
through Thursday afternoon/evening. Ridging builds over the region
Friday and Saturday before a more zonal flow develops on Sunday.

At the surface, a frontal boundary will be over central South Dakota
Tuesday evening, with precipitation likely ongoing. Chances for
precipitation (40-60%) will continue along the front as it tracks
eastward through the day Wednesday. The most likely time for a
stronger storm or two would be Tuesday evening across central South
Dakota where MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and 30 to 35 knots of bulk
shear develop. Instability will be little to none after that late
Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure settles in over the area
Wednesday night. Another front will track across the area on
Thursday, and in association with the aforementioned shortwave, will
be the focus for precipitation Thursday afternoon and evening. There
is potential for some stronger storms with this system as MUCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg and bulk shear of 50 to 75 knots develop during the
evening hours, mainly across the western two thirds of the CWA. The
models are all hinting at additional precipitation chances Friday
through Sunday, but are all over the place with the timing and
location, so will just stick with some small POPs during this time
until a clearer solution comes together.

High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, in
the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday, in the 70s Friday and Saturday,
and in the mid to upper 60s Sunday. Overnight lows will be mainly in
the 40s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Except for the periods of time when near surface smoke
concentrations are high enough to reduce visby (5-6SM), VFR
conditions are forecast for all terminals through the TAF period.
Out of any of the terminals, the highest smoke concentrations are
supposed to reside over far northeast South Dakota (KATY?) through
Monday morning, before gradually shifting/expanding west toward
the Missouri River valley region (KPIR/KMBG) in South Dakota.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin