528
FNUS73 KABR 302207
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Roy Lake State Park RX...SD GFP
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
507 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 CDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms currently near the prescribed burn
area could bring a quick 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain to the area
this evening. Relative humidity recovery will be over 90 percent
tonight into Wednesday morning. If burning this evening, strong
winds will be the main concern this evening, with gusts out of
the west nearing 35 to 45 mph between 9 PM and 2 AM behind a
cold front sliding across the area. Winds will slowly diminish
during the daytime hours Wednesday under decreasing clouds.
Temperatures will top out near 60 degrees.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
CWR.................35 percent decreasing to 1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2000, then 2 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southwest winds 14 to 18 mph shifting
                    to the west 22 to 28 mph with gusts to around
                    45 mph in the late evening and overnight, then
                    decreasing to 17 to 18 mph with gusts to around
                    29 mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......500-2100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 23 mph shifting to the west
                    around 21 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (7800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........58  67  65  61  57  53  47  39  33  30  28  26
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  50  20  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............54  53  51  48  47  45  46  44  43  43  40  39
RH..............93  96  96  93  89  93  86  86  89  86  89  92
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..14  15  18  24  28  25  24  25  24  22  18  17
20 FT wind gust.16  17  26  40  45  41  39  41  36  33  29  28
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5
Smoke Dispersal.FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-5500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 20 mph decreasing to around 9 mph
                    late in the afternoon, then shifting to the
                    south around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (65200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or (low) to (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25  19  17  13  15  15  23  35  45  51  55  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............38  37  40  43  48  52  54  57  59  59  59  60
RH..............96  96  92  86  77  63  54  47  44  40  40  41
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..16  16  15  15  16  14  13  13  12  10  8   9
20 FT wind gust.25  23  23  23  24  22  21  20  18  17  14  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.5 3.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.5
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  FR  FR  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...KF
Requested by...Zac Hook
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412848.0/ABR
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Zachariah.hook@state.sd.us