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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 181525
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Ancient Acres Burn...Virginia Department of Forestry
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1125 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
A backdoor cold front moves across the area later today into
tonight leading to cooler, cloudy, and slightly more humid
conditions for Friday. RH values start off around 90% and fall to
around 50% during the afternoon and evening hours. Scattered light
rain showers (~30% chance) will be possible during the afternoon
and evening hours with only a couple hundredths of an inch
expected. Winds start out of the E to ESE Friday morning, before
shifting to the SE Friday afternoon.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 8 mph shifting to the south 6 to
                    7 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (16200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................15 to 21.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........82  86  89  88  86  84  77  70  63
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20
Temp............54  56  59  62  64  67  68  70  71
RH..............77  74  69  62  60  54  54  53  51
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   6   6   6   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   6   5   5   6   6   7
LVORI...........4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............15  17  18  17  15  15  16  19  21
Haines index....4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10  12  13  12  12  12  13  15  16
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening, then chance
                    of rain showers early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 7 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 6 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................1 to 17.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........64  66  67  67  66  66  66  67  68  66  63  61
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10
Temp............69  67  65  64  62  60  59  57  56  55  55  55
RH..............57  61  68  67  72  78  80  86  90  93  90  90
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   NE  NE  N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3
20 FT wind gust.8   6   6   6   5   5   5   3   3   3   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   NE  N
Transp wind spd.7   6   5   5   3   2   2   3   3   5   6   6
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   3   4   5   6   7   7   6   6
ADI.............17  4   3   3   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   3
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12  7   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2   3   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...BUTNER
Requested by...Jesse Bander
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411326.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jesse.bander@dof.virginia.gov