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000
FXUS63 KAPX 222300
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
700 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger through early this evening.

- Showers tonight and Tuesday. Slight chance for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Colder Tue night and Wednesday, then moderating temps.

- Active weather likely this upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern/synopsis: Low pressure and an associated surface cold front
will cross the region later tonight into Tuesday.

Forecast: Clouds will increase and thicken tonight. A band of
showers expected to cross the region late tonight into early Tuesday
from west to east. This will be followed by a lull in the action for
much of Tuesday morning. Showers and possible embedded thunder
likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. Instability is weak but looks
like possibly up to a few hundred j/kg of cape across southeast
zones. The airmass remains rather dry however with precipitable
water values only increasing to around a half inch. Surface
dewpoints will be lucky to make it to much above the low 40s
Tuesday. Can`t rule out locally gusty winds and pea sized hail,
mainly as you head down toward Saginaw Bay. In the meantime, high
fire danger and the associated red flag warning continues across all
of northern lower into early this evening due to gusty southwest
winds, very low relative humidity and very dry fine fuels. Lows
tonight in the mild low and mid 40s. Highs Tuesday generally ranging
from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A trough swings out of the region and shifts winds from west to
north as a frontal boundary and a cooler airmass push into the area
heading into Wednesday. Heights rise later in the week due to a
ridge of high pressure building across the Plains resulting in quiet
and mild weather for Northern Michigan (potentially leading to fire
weather concerns). However, by the weekend, another shot of energy
is expected to make its way from the Plains to the upper Midwest
resulting in likely active weather for this upcoming weekend.


PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Active weather likely this upcoming weekend: An upper-level low and
its associated surface low pressure are expected to track northward
from the central Plains to the upper Midwest. At this time, showers
appear likely, with the potential for some embedded thunderstorms
possible. Looking at guidance, decent CAPE looks to advect into the
region making this setup something to keep an eye on in the coming
days. Accompanying these showers, could be some pretty gusty winds
with some areas potentially seeing gusts up to 40 mph. However, with
this setup being several days away, stay tuned as we continue to
fine tune the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Initial upstream cold front will swing thru our CWA overnight...
providing sct/nmrs showers late tonight into early Tuesday. We
will see a brief break in the action Tuesday morning...before
additional chances of showers and possibly some thunderstorms
develop Tuesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the
secondary main cold front as it sweeps thru our region Tuesday
night. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR for the next 24
hours...dropping to MVFR at times within some heavier shower
activity. LLWS will develop across portions of Eastern Upper and
NW Lower Michigan late tonight. Surface winds will remain from
the SW at 10 to 20 kts...becoming SW and eventually W/NW on
Tuesday and strengthening to 15 to 25 kts behind the secondary
cold front.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-098-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-
     346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MLR