Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
248 FNUS73 KAPX 010911 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for Tuttle RX...USDA Forest Service National Weather Service Gaylord MI 511 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 01. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...There is a chance for rain showers at the fire site at ignition time, but that ends by noon. Clouds will decrease in the afternoon, which will help temperatures and winds increase, and humidity levels to fall. Winds will be south at 10 to 15 mph and gusty at ignition. Those winds veer southwest and west through the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph will be possible in the afternoon. Humidity bottoms out at 30 to 35 percent late in the afternoon. Those west winds will slowly subside tonight. Elevated fire danger this afternoon and evening. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain showers late in the morning. Max temperature.....Around 72. Min humidity........35 percent. 20-foot winds.......South winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the west 12 to 13 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 29 mph. Transport winds.....South 17 to 21 mph increasing to west 29 to 31 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......800-2100 ft AGL increasing to 4600-5700 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to fair (138.0-443.0) increasing to very good to excellent (1329.0-1653.0) late in the afternoon. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........87 84 89 66 57 48 35 31 Weather cov.....CHC Weather type....RW Tstm cov........ Temp............52 55 59 65 70 71 70 69 RH..............80 77 69 56 45 36 36 35 20 ft wind dir..S S SW SW SW W W W 20 ft wind spd..12 12 15 15 15 16 16 16 20 ft wind gust.22 22 25 25 25 29 29 29 Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 1.4 2.1 4.6 5.3 5.6 5.7 Haines index....4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 Transp wind dir.S S S SW W W W W Transp wind spd.18 17 20 21 29 31 29 29 Vrate kt-ft.....150 138 270 443 1329163116121653 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR FR VGD EXL EXL EXL .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Min temperature.....Around 42. Max humidity........96 percent. 20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 12 mph. Transport winds.....West 25 to 26 mph becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph early in the evening. Mixing height.......4800-5200 ft AGL decreasing to 700-1200 ft AGL early in the evening. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Very good (1208.0) decreasing to poor (86.0) early in the evening. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........32 42 38 45 46 59 58 41 24 29 33 38 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............68 65 61 58 56 53 52 52 50 48 47 44 RH..............37 41 48 57 64 71 74 71 77 80 83 89 20 ft wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 ft wind spd..15 15 15 10 10 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 ft wind gust.25 25 25 20 20 20 15 15 15 14 14 14 Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 4.8 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 Haines index....5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Transp wind dir.W W W W W NW NW W W W NW NW Transp wind spd.26 25 15 15 15 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 Vrate kt-ft.....13651208185 119 136 113 113 97 95 96 86 91 Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Max temperature.....Around 61. Min humidity........56 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 6 mph early in the morning, then shifting to the north early in the afternoon shifting to the east around 7 mph in the afternoon. Transport winds.....North 8 to 12 mph shifting to the east 7 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......800-2600 ft AGL increasing to 1300-2900 ft AGL in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (61.0). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........35 57 57 53 57 53 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Temp............43 44 52 58 58 58 RH..............93 89 71 57 57 56 20 ft wind dir..NW NW N E E E 20 ft wind spd..8 8 7 9 9 9 20 ft wind gust.14 14 12 12 12 13 Mix hgt (ft)....800 1800 2200 2900 2300 1600 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 Transport wind..NW 10 NW 12 N 9 E 7 SE 9 E 9 Vrate kt-ft.....85 207 199 199 211 152 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...JZ Requested by...Corey Smith Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412857.0/APX .DELDT 05/01/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov