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000
FXUS63 KARX 120016
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
716 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers continuing through afternoon, with the greatest
  coverage along and south of I-90. Isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms will continue to be possible. Small hail and
  wind gusts to 35 mph will be possible. Winds will be
  increasing today from west to east with gusts 30-35 mph
  through Friday.

- A warm and mostly sunny weekend with temperatures in the 70s
  across the area. An 80 degree day is not out of the question,
  especially for northeast Iowa.

- An active weather pattern early next week with a warm Monday,
  then rain/storms looking likely Monday night and Tuesday,
  severe storms possible, and turning windy. Keep weather aware.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Today through the Weekend:

A couple of shortwave troughs are
currently over our area. One is providing some precipitation to
western portions of the area and is slowly progress eastward. The
other shortwave trough is off to the east and is helping to produce
some showers across central Wisconsin. These waves are expected to
merge together then merge with a deeper trough from the southeast on
Saturday. These showers are expected to continue throughout the day
today. Looking at current CAM runs, there continues to be a little
bit of MUCAPE (roughly 200 to 500J/kg) in the area that will help to
promote the chance of thunderstorms. The current forecast has a 20
to 40% chance of a thunderstorm, with the higher chances being
closer to central Wisconsin. The main threats with these storms
would be some isolated small hail and gusty winds (30 to 35mph).
Most areas have a good chance of seeing some rain with these showers
as QPF values are between 0.1 and 0.3" with the higher totals in
central Wisconsin. Heading into the weekend, shortwave ridging will
be over the area and winds will increase Friday and gust up to 30 to
35 mph. Temperatures are expected to be in 70s for much of the
forecast area with a potential for 80 in northeast Iowa.

Monday into Tuesday:

After the precipitation from today and the very nice weekend, focus
turns to early next week as a low ejects from the southern Rockies
and moves into the Upper Midwest. Ensemble and deterministic
guidance have good agreement in this low strengthening as it
moves northeast across the Plains. Based on the current track of
the storm, the low moves northwest of our area late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday morning. Before the center of the low
passes, the main part of this storm to look out for would be the
warm front associated with the low. This would provide
sufficient lift to help with thunderstorm potential. Given how
strong this low is forecasted to be and the location of it,
moisture advection is also expected to be strong. PWAT values of
1 to 1.5" will be possible as the low level jet pushes
sufficient moisture into the Upper Midwest. With this moisture,
ensemble probabilities of 0.5" falling is still high (50 to
80%).

The uncertainty lies in exactly when and where this low moves
through. If the low moves through during the overnight or morning
hours, then this could limit the severe potential as to an afternoon
or evening passage of the warm front. While there is still some
disagreement in exactly when the warm front pushes through, SPC has
placed the southeastern portion of our CWA in a 15% for severe
weather on Tuesday. CSU machine learning probabilities also has most
of the area in a 15 to 30% chance of severe weather. Even though
there is uncertainty regarding the severe weather aspect of the
system, there will be a strong surface pressure gradient resulting
in a good chance (40 to 70%) of seeing 40+ mph wind gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Scattered rain showers continue to move across the area this
evening, but will continue to decrease in coverage/diminish
into the night. Increased northwest winds (15 to 20 kts) will
persist through much of the period with gusts up to near 30 kts
possible. VFR ceilings are forecast (MVFR <30% chance at KLSE)
with skies clearing gradually through the period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...EMS