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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Developing western Atlantic gale...
1011 mb low pressure is along the Atlantic coast near the border
of North and South Carolina, along a cold front that extends from
the northern Gulf of Mexico across the SE U.S. and into the
western Atlantic. The cold front is expected to sink slowly SE
today through Mon night, moving into the waters offshore of NE
Florida this evening and across the NW forecast waters Mon and Mon
night. The current low pressure along the Atlantic coast will move
eastward, and remain just N of 31N, and gradually strengthen through
Mon, then begin to lift off to the NE Mon evening and night.
Strong northerly winds will fill in behind the front and across
the western semicircle of the low Mon, and increase to gale-force
Mon afternoon through early Tue morning, before diminishing
quickly Tue morning, as the low move well N of the local Atlantic
waters. Seas will build to 8-15 ft in N to NE swell during the
period of gales.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W and extends to 04.5N25W. The ITCZ extends from
02N28W to coastal Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to
08.5N between 04W and 18W, and extends well inland across Africa.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 05N between
18W and 48W, and S of 07N between 48W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved into the northern Gulf this morning, and
at 1200 UTC extended from the western Florida Panhandle to across
the Brownsville, Texas area. A trough resides just ahead of the
front and extends from central portions near 25N90W to the Mexican
coast near Veracruz. Western Atlantic high pressure extends a
ridge westward along 27N, across Florida, and into the eastern
Gulf ahead of the front. A short wave upper trough sweeping across
the western Gulf is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms on both sides of the front, from 21N to 28N to the
west of 93.5W, and north of 26.5N between 83W and 88W. Recent
midday satellite scatterometer winds depicted strong northerly
winds to 30 kt behind the front and west of 92W, where seas have
built to 7-9 ft. Fresh NW to N winds are elsewhere behind the
front E of 92W, with seas 3 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds across SW portions of the basin, to the west of the surface
trough, where seas remain 5-6 ft from an overnight pulse of winds.
Moderate or less winds prevail elsewhere across the basin, with
seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 ft or less NE portions.

For the forecast, the front will reach from N-central Florida to
the W-central Gulf to Veracruz, Mexico this evening, then will
weaken and eventually wash out as it pushes through the southern
Gulf by Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will
follow the front through early Mon, lingering offshore of Veracruz
through Mon evening. High pressure will rebuild in the wake of
the front, with gentle to moderate winds across the NE half of the
basin, and moderate to fresh across the SW half, pulsing to fresh
to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad and weak Atlantic high pressure ridge is along 27N and N
of the basin, producing a modest pressure gradient across the
Caribbean. Fresh winds are S of Hispaniola, just offshore of Colombia,
and downstream of the Windward Passage between Jamaica and Cuba.
Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere, and become SE across
the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in the areas of fresh winds,
and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate thunderstorms persist
across the coastal waters south of 10N from NW Colombia to eastern
Panama. The lingering remnants of an old frontal trough extend
from the NE Caribbean along 18N westward to south of Puerto Rico.
A cluster of scattered moderate convection continues across the
waters surrounding St Croix, while other light convection dots the
waters between Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, the broad subtropical ridge north of the
Greater Antilles will support pulsing fresh to strong winds just
offshore N Colombia tonight and again Wed night. Otherwise
moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the central
and eastern Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will
prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh from the Lee of
Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore central Honduras at
times. A decaying cold front may reach into the Caribbean N of 20N
Mon night, possibly bringing a brief period of active weather.
Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West Atlantic ridging extends from 1022 mb high pressure near
31N54W through 28N58W and across south Florida along 27N and into
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Another ridge extends from 31N27W
through 22N42W. Light to gentle winds are right under the ridges,
with gentle to moderate along the peripheries. Seas are 3 to 6 ft
across most of the basin. Separating the ridges, a 1012 mb surface
low is near 27.5N40W with a cold front extending southwestward to
22N46W then transitions to a trough extending to the Leeward
Islands near 17N62W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of
27N between 38W and 30W. Fresh to strong winds surround the low
center and extend NE to beyond 31N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across
these NE forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds are from the
Cabo Verde Islands to the Canary Islands offshore western Africa
to 23W, with 5 to 7 ft seas there.

See the Special features section for information on gale
conditions expected across the NW waters.

For the forecast, high pressure over the basin will continue to
prevail ahead of a cold front which will move offshore NE Florida
this evening, reaching from 31N73W to near Stuart, Florida Mon
evening, from just E of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening,
then stalling and dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the
Turks and Caicos Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas will follow the front, mainly N of 27N, increasing
to gale speeds Monday afternoon. Seas will build to 14 ft with the
strongest winds. The trough is forecast to linger through the
remainder of the week with mainly tranquil conditions for the end
of the week.

$$
Stripling