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AGNT40 KWNM 231914
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
312 PM EDT THU 23 MAY 2013

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...A COLD FNT WILL MOVE SE TOWARD THE E CST THIS AFTN AND
TONITE...THEN PASS SE AND E OVER THE OFSHR WTRS FRI THRU SAT.
LOW PRES WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE SRN NT1 WTRS FRI THRU
SAT...TRACK NE OVER THE NRN NT1 WTRS SUN...THEN PASS NE OF THE
NT1 AREA MON. HI PRES RDG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NT2 WTRS THIS
AFTN...THEN SHIFT E OF THE OFSHR WTRS TONITE AS THE COLD FNT
APRCHS THE E CST. ANOTHER RDG WILL BLD SE INTO THE SRN NT2 WTRS
LATER SAT...EXPAND OVER THE REMAINING NT2 WTRS SUN AND
MON...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NT1 WTRS TUE.

MODELS...12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN VRY CLOSE AGREEMNT DURING THE FCST
PRD...WITH ONLY DIFF NOTED BEING THE 12Z GFS LOOKS A LTL STGR
WITH THE W TO NW FLOW BHD THE COLD FNT OVER THE SAT AND SUN PRD.
THE 12Z NOGAPS HAS ALSO TRENDED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF/GFS...SO
THERE IS MORE OF A MDL CONSENSUS WITH THIS RUN. THE 12Z
GEM/UKMET ARE FASTER WITH THE LOW DURING THE FRI NITE THRU SUN
TIMEFRAME...BUT THE GEM IS AN OUTLYER SOLN ANYWAY BECAUSE IT
STILL LOOKS SIGNIF TOO STG WITH THE S TO SW FLOW OVER THE THU
THRU SAT TIMEFRAME. WILL USE THE 12Z GFS FOR THE UPCOMING OFSHR
WTRS FCST PACKAGE...BUT WILL TONE DOWN THE W TO NW FLOW BHD THE
COLD FNT ARND SAT AND SUN IN THE SRN NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS.

SEAS...THE 12Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 12Z ECMWF WAM INITIALIZED WELL
ACROSS THE CSTL/OFSHR WTRS. THE MULTIGRID WW3 HAS VRY STG
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF WAM THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PRD...AND WILL
BE CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.GULF OF MAINE...NONE.
.GEORGES BANK...NONE.
.SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...NONE.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE...GALE THU NITE INTO SAT...MOD
CONFDC.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...GALE THU NITE INTO FRI
NITE...LOW TO MOD CONFDC.
.HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...NONE.
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE.
$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.