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000
FXUS61 KBGM 152256
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
656 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry and mild conditions through
Tuesday. Another low pressure system will bring our next chance
for rain on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

630 PM Update...

Warmer temperatures expanded further into the twin tiers this
afternoon. Therefore minor adjustments were made to update
temperatures and dew points using a blend of current observations
and the previous forecast. Otherwise clear and calm conditions
continue this evening and into the overnight period.

330 PM Update...

A weak shortwave pushing across northern NY is bringing a few
sprinkles/isolated showers to northern Oneida County this
afternoon. These showers will be pushing east over the next
couple of hours and then clearing skies is expected. High
pressure builds overhead this evening and tonight and will
persist through the day on Tuesday.

The clear skies tonight will bring decent radiational cooling
and temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s most areas.
For Tuesday, warm and sunny conditions are expected with
afternoon highs likely a few degrees warmer than today. Most
locations will see low to mid 60s, however a few of the warmer
spots will make a run towards 70. Tomorrow night will see
increasing clouds toward daybreak on Wednesday, however, before
the clouds push in, temperatures will likely already have
dropped into the 30s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

A slow moving warm front will pass through CNY/NEPA Wednesday
night. With and ahead of the front will be rain showers. A cold
front will pass through late Thursday with more showers. The
models have slowed down both fronts. Wednesday morning some
sunshine before the rain moves in will push temperatures into
the upper 50s and lower 60s. The rain moves into the central
southern tier and Bradford County midday. Likely to cat pops
will be across the area Wed afternoon through Thursday. Total
rain amounts will stay under an inch. Lows Wednesday night fall
into the 40s to around 50. Highs Thursday will only get into the
upper 40s and 50s with rain and clouds. Thursday will also be
breezy as winds increase to 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM Update...

This period will continue to be unsettled as a broad upper level
trough moves over the area. A cold front with rain showers will
move through Friday night followed by northwest winds and more
showers. Saturday into Saturday evening. Saturday it gets cold
enough for some snow to mix in across the highest terrain.

Sunday into Monday looks mainly dry but first with the northwest
flow some showers could linger, then several waves along a front
lifts north into the mid Atlantic states. The lows along the
front could push showers north into NEPA and Sullivan County NY.

Temperatures from the upper 50s to the mid 60s Friday fall into
the 50s Sunday then recover a little Monday. Lows in the low and
mid 40s Friday night fall into the 30s Saturday night and Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure building into the region this afternoon with
clearing skies expected by this evening. High confidence for VFR
through the period for everywhere except RME. For RME, a few
isolated showers this afternoon may bring brief MVFR conditions,
but confidence is too low to include in the forecast as showers
will be moving out of the area in the next hour or two.

Finally, winds will be gusty at times this afternoon, but winds
will dissipate around sunset this evening. Not expecting valley
fog overnight like we saw last night with high pressure and very
dry air pushing in.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...ES/MPK
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MPK