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000
FXUS61 KBGM 151054
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance moving across northern New York
could bring a stray shower to areas north of the Thruway today.
Otherwise it will remain dry and mild through Tuesday. Another
low pressure system will bring our next chance for rain on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Patchy fog has developed across portions of Central NY, mainly
east of I-81, though it has dissipated in a few places as mid
level clouds move overhead. Expect this to last until shortly
after sunrise, and a few patches may exist west of I-81 as
well.

Otherwise, a sheared-out shortwave trough embedded in a belt of
enhanced westerly flow will graze northern NY this morning. This
will bring enhanced cloud cover to areas roughly north of I-88,
and especially north of the Thruway, where an isolated rain
shower could also pop-up through early afternoon. Expect partly
to mostly sunny skies elsewhere in the region, with cooler
temperatures across North-Central NY (but still near normal),
and warmer in the Twin Tiers and NEPA. Highs in the Wyoming
Valley will near the 70-degree mark, a solid 8-10 degrees above
normal.

Temperatures will cool down to slightly below normal overnight
with ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Fair weather will
prevail again on Tuesday, with temperatures a near repeat of
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM Update...

A warm front will pass through Central NY and NE PA Wednesday
morning, bringing rain showers across the area. Later that
night, a cold front will move through, maintaining chances for
rain showers into Thursday. Instability looks minimal, so low
chances for thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s
to low-60s Wednesday, and cool down to low- to mid-50s on
Thursday after the cold front passes through overnight
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
430 AM Update...

From Friday through Saturday, there will be rain showers as an
upper-level low over Canada slowly drags a long and weak frontal
boundary over the region. It`ll cool down over those days with
the upper-level low swinging over our region, increasing chances
for mixed light rain and snow showers Saturday night through
Sunday morning, mainly for higher elevated areas in Central NY.
Saturday night will dip down to a few degrees below freezing in
those aforementioned higher elevated areas, and mid- to high-30s
elsewhere. Sunday night will be colder as well, with most areas
dipping to around freezing, but currently will likely remain
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy morning fog could still bring some brief MVFR
restrictions at SYR, while obs suggest mid cloud cover is
preventing fog from redeveloping at RME. Further south,
visibility has been quite flaky at ELM suggesting fog there is
fairly shallow, but prevailing MVFR and brief IFR will likely
continue through 13 or 14Z.

Steady winds at ITH will preclude fog development there, while
BGM and AVP both have wider dewpoint depressions, and should
remain VFR through the period.

All sites will trend back to VFR by after 14Z, and these
conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours, with light
winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPH