787
FXUS63 KBIS 082355
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
655 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered rain showers continue this evening,
  especially in northwestern North Dakota.

- A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected Thursday
  through the weekend.

- Confidence is increasing that more widespread precipitation
  chances will return to the region during the first half of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A few showers continue to rotate around the low over far
southern North Dakota, and over far north central into northwest
North Dakota. Previous forecast reflected this quite well, so
only change was to adjust precipitation chances a little bit
based on current trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Low pressure that was vertically stacked over southwestern
ND/northwestern SD has become elongated as it quickly shifts
southeast through the remainder of today into tonight. During
this time, the area will remain in cyclonic flow resulting in
continued isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and
evening, especially in the northwest. There remains a low chance
that a thunderstorm or two could creep up into the southern
James River Valley of ND later today. However, the best
thunderstorm potential looks to remain south of the forecast
area.

For Thursday, a quick-moving ridge on a west to east axis passes
through the area bringing warmer temperatures to the region. A
weak trailing shortwave will flatten the ridge and bring a 20
percent chance of showers primarily to western ND Thursday
afternoon. A few showers could then continue in southwestern to
central ND during the evening. Beyond that, conditions look
mostly dry through the weekend as flow aloft becomes
northwesterly.

During the weekend, models are in fair agreement that somewhat
weak upper low pressure will develop over the Four Corners
region and progress eastward, while more organized low pressure
passes through south central Canada towards the southern Hudson
Bay. A trailing trough off the Hudson Bay low brings the best
chances of precipitation towards the middle of the week.
Regardless, the main thing is that starting Sunday night,
multiple waves of energy may bring precipitation to the forecast
area. A lack of agreement means exact details on timing,
precipitation totals, and thunderstorm potential are not yet
known.

Temperatures will continue a gradual warming trend into this
weekend. Highs Thursday and Friday will be mostly in the mid to
upper 60s. By the weekend, however, most locations should see
low to mid 70 degree readings. A cooling trend is then favored
to start the next workweek as aforementioned troughing may
bring cooler air to the region. That said, NBM 25th/75th
percentile spreads remain semi-large (around 10 degrees) for
high temperatures next week, so some uncertainty certainly does
exist.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Localized MVFR ceilings are possible over far southwest and
south central North Dakota, along with over far north central
into northwest North Dakota this evening as a few isolated
showers continue to move through. Isolated showers are again
possible over western North Dakota Thursday afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...JJS