075
FNUS73 KBIS 101236
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for PMC Burn...USDA-NRCS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
736 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Northwest winds around 10 mph early this morning will become breezy
later this morning and afternoon. This will result in winds of 15 to
20 mph by early afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph. Winds will rapidly
diminish and become light tonight while shifting to the southwest. Dry
conditions with mostly sunny then mostly clear skies will prevail today
through tonight. Minimum relative humidity values will drop to around
28 percent this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to
around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 20 mph increasing to 24 to 25
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (153700 knot-ft) in
the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   5   6   11  15  20  22  24  26  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............52  56  60  63  66  68  69  70  70  70
RH..............56  51  46  41  34  29  28  28  28  28
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  12  12  12  13  15  17  20  18  16
20 FT wind gust.17  20  20  19  20  22  24  28  25  24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.9 1.6 4.0 7.3 8.1 8.6 8.8 9.2 9.1
Transp wind dir.NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.14  16  16  20  24  25  25  25  24  24
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..6   13  23  67  154 177 189 194 194 192

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 14 mph in the early
evening rapidly becoming light and shifting to
the southwest overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 22 to 24 mph becoming north 6 to 13
                    mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    southwest 5 to 8 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (184200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to very good (146800 knot-ft) late
                    in the night decreasing to poor (1500 knot-ft)
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........24  23  16  13  10  15  11  16  16  15  15  10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............70  69  66  61  57  55  53  50  49  48  47  47
RH..............28  29  34  42  47  53  54  63  63  65  68  71
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..14  12  9   6   5   4   3   3   4   4   5   4
20 FT wind gust.20  19  14  10  7   5   5   5   5   6   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...8.8 7.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   N   SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.24  22  13  10  7   6   5   5   7   7   8   8
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..184 147 11  6   3   2   2   2   2   2   3   3

$$
Forecaster...TELKEN
Requested by...Lucas Schmiesing
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413684.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lucas.schmiesing@usda.gov