Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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092 FXUS64 KBMX 301832 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 132 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2024 A weak surface front continues to move southeast across Central Alabama, with showers and a few storms now located along and southeast of a line from Clanton to Wedowee. The upper level trough axis and shortwave is also departing off to the east, which will allow drier air at 700mb to move in from the northwest this afternoon. Although we have some stubborn low clouds to still deal with in the meantime, those should finally mix out by this afternoon. With mostly sunny conditions, highs will range from the upper 70s in the northeast counties to the lower 80s in the far southwest. Rain chances will hold on a little longer through the late afternoon hours in the far southeast counties and finally move out of the area this evening. We won`t see much of a change in airmass overall following the departing system as we go into the overnight hours tonight. This will set the stage for an ideal fog development scenario with mostly clear skies, calm winds, and dewpoints holding in the 60s along and south of I-20. Areas of fog have been added to the forecast as a result, and a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed if current guidance trends hold up. Lows will only drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations. Upper level ridging will take place during the day on Wednesday, which will lead to very warm, almost summer-like temperatures in the mid to upper 80s under mostly sunny skies. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 122 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2024 No major changes needed in the forecast for the second half of the week and through the weekend. Several rounds of at least scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible over the weekend. Temperatures will be notably warmer than we`ve seen so far this season with highs Thursday getting close or hitting 90 for much of the area. Highs will continue to be in the mid to upper 80s through early next week with a few low 80s possible across the area depending on timing and coverage of rain each day. 25/Owen Previous long-term discussion: (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 232 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2024 Mid-level ridging extending from the Gulf through the eastern CONUS Thursday will result in above normal temperatures for early May. A convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV moves in from the west late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Mid-level moisture increases but low-levels remain fairly dry, so will only include low chances for showers in the forecast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will then set up for the rest of the period, north/northeast of subtropical ridging building over Mexico and the southwestern Gulf. Various weak shortwaves emanating from the Southern Plains combined with above normal PWATs for this time of year will result in at least isolated to scattered showers and storms each day, highest chances north further removed from the ridge. A bit more coverage will be possible Friday afternoon and Friday night across the far north as a cold front stalls to our north and then lifts back to the north. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2024 Stubborn IFR to MVFR clouds have lingered at a few terminals through the early afternoon hours, but will finally mix out to VFR later this afternoon. In addition, scattered SHRA will be possible at MGM and TOI through the afternoon as well, with isolated TSRA activity. For now, have only included VCSH for those locations, with low confidence of TSRA being close enough to affect terminals at this time. The next aviation challenge will come overnight tonight, as ideal fog development conditions appear to be setting up. Went ahead and added in reduced vis in a majority of terminals, with the most widespread fog across eastern and southeastern portions of Central Alabama. Amendments can be expected based on the latest guidance and observation trends through the evening. VFR conditions are expected on Wednesday after fog mixes out through 14z. Light or variable winds are expected through the period. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and a few storms will continue through the morning. The rain should exit east Alabama by sunset tonight. 20 foot winds will become west 6-8 mph today. Rain free conditions Wednesday and Thursday with RH values dropping into the 30s. 20 foot winds will be from north around 3-6 mph on Wednesday. the Another round of wetting rains return on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 56 85 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 59 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 61 86 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 61 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 61 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 63 85 63 87 / 10 0 0 10 Montgomery 63 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 62 87 61 89 / 10 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....25/Owen AVIATION...56